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| 摘要: |
| 根据电力市场运营对短期负荷预测STLF(Short Term Load Forecast)高精度要求，提出多层多预测原理的STLF评估系统。系统由人机交互层、评估决策层、多原理预测层和数据库管理层构成。根据具体负荷特性、运行情况、评估结果自适应选择高精度原理的预测Agent执行。按评估系统多数据源的需求，采用ADO．NET实现复杂互联网环境下异构数据库的集成，构建负荷预测专用数据仓库，给出了负荷预测计算服务的Web Service实现方法。 |
| 关键词: 智能负荷预测 预测性能评估 异构数据库 数据仓库 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TM715 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Multi-layer & multi-theory STLF evaluation system |
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SUN Ya-ming CHEN Ming-feng ZHANG Zhi-sheng
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| Abstract: |
| To meet the high precision demand of STLF(Short Term Load Forecast) in electricity market, a multi-layer STLF evaluation system with different forecast theories is presented. It consists of interface layer,evaluation and decision-making layer, multi-theory forecast layer and database management layer. According to the actual load character and operating status of power system and the evaluation of forecast results, the forecast agents with higher precision are self-adaptively selected. As the evaluation system requires multi-resource data, heterogeneous databases are aggregated under complex Internet environment by means of ADO. NET and the forecast data warehouse is built. The forecast service for user is afforded with Web Service. |
| Key words: intelligent load forecast,forecast performance evaluation,heterogeneous databases,data warehouse |
