| 引用本文: | 曾 鸣,李 娜,王 涛,欧阳邵杰,王 良.兼容需求侧资源的负荷预测新方法[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(10): |
| ZENG Ming,LI Na,WANG Tao,OUYANG Shaojie,WANG Liang.Load forecasting compatible with demand-side resources[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(10): |
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| 摘要: |
| 提出一种兼容需求侧资源的负荷预测新方法，其基本思路为“自上而下细分负荷，自下而上叠加计算”。该方法的主要步骤为确定预测范围、对用户进行分类、识别各类用户的各种需求侧资源、定量分析预测期内各类用户各种需求侧资源对负荷的影响效果，通过多层次叠加技术测算得到预测区域内考虑需求侧资源的最大负荷。基于此，构建考虑需求侧资源的负荷预测模型。以某110 kV变电站中某条线路的覆盖范围为仿真算例，结果表明，考虑需求侧资源影响后电网规划中的负荷预测结果显著降低。 |
| 关键词: 需求侧资源 负荷预测 电网规划 模型 |
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| Load forecasting compatible with demand-side resources |
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ZENG Ming, LI Na, WANG Tao, OUYANG Shaojie, WANG Liang
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Research Advisory Center of Energy and Electricity Economics，North China Electric Power University，Beijing 102206，China
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| Abstract: |
| A method of load forecasting is proposed，which is compatible with the demand-side resources. Its basic idea is “top-down load subdividing and reverse calculating” and its main steps are as follows： determine the forecasting area；classify power consumers；identify the demand-side resources of different consumers；quantitatively analyze the impact of demand-side resources of different consumers on the load；with the consideration of demand-side resources，calculate the maximum load of forecasting area through multi-level stacking technique. The load forecasting model considering the demand-side resources is built. Simulation is carried out for a 110 kV substation feeder and results show that，with the consideration of demand-side resources，the load forecasted for grid planning is much lower. |
| Key words: demand-side resource electric load forecasting grid planning models |
