| 摘要: |
| 风电的大规模并网使得风电功率的波动性对电网的影响越来越大，单一且确定的点预测往往不能满足电网风险分析和制定决策的需求。通过对风电功率预测误差分布特性的研究，提出利用预测功率区间分段方法与参数优化后的贝塔分布对具有偏态性的功率预测误差频率分布进行拟合。同时根据估计区间最狭原则，实现一定置信水平下风电功率的波动区间估计。利用所建优化模型、正态分布模型和优化前的贝塔分布模型分别对某风电场历史数据进行分析，对比结果验证了优化贝塔分布模型能更有效地对功率预测区间进行估计。 |
| 关键词: 风电 功率预测 预测误差 概率分布 贝塔分布 区间估计 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（12ZX19） |
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| Wind power fluctuation interval estimation based on beta distribution |
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LIU Xingjie, XIE Chunyu
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Department of Electrical Engineering，North China Electric Power University，Baoding 071003，China
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| Abstract: |
| Large-scale integration of wind power into grid makes the influence of wind power fluctuation on grid increasing and normally，the wind power forecast for a single and fixed point can not meet the needs of power grid for risk analysis and decision-making. The distribution characteristics of wind power forecast error are studied and it is suggested to segment the power forecast range and fit the skewed frequency distribution of power forecast error by the beta distribution with optimized parameters. According to the most narrow principle of estimation interval，the interval estimation of wind power forecast at a certain confidence level is realized. The historic data of a wind farm are analyzed respectively with the proposed model，normal distribution model and non-optimized beta distribution model，and results verify that，the optimized beta distribution model can more effectively estimate the power forecast interval. |
| Key words: wind power power forecast forecast error probability distributions beta distribution interval estimation |
