| 引用本文: | 崔伟,李武璟,牛拴保,王风雷,褚云龙,薛晨,杨君军.自然灾害下高风险多重故障集快速生成方法[J].电力自动化设备,2021,41(4): |
| CUI Wei,LI Wujing,NIU Shuanbao,WANG Fenglei,CHU Yunlong,XUE Chen,YANG Junjun.Rapid generation method of high risk multiple fault set under natural disaster[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2021,41(4): |
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| 摘要: |
| 随着电力系统稳定特性日趋复杂、极端自然灾害频发以及社会对电能依赖程度的增长，迫切需要将停电防御框架向自然灾害预警拓展。提出一种自然灾害下高风险多重故障集快速生成方法，将高风险预想故障纳入在线安全分析。在兼顾多类型自然灾害和多地点电气设备空间-电气耦合特性的基础上计算群发故障和相继故障的组合概率，从网架结构脆弱性、电网状态脆弱性和电网事故风险3个维度进行故障后果评价，采用回溯算法实现自然灾害下高风险预想集快速筛选和生成。实际电网的案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。 |
| 关键词: 自然灾害 故障概率 高风险 多重故障 回溯算法 |
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| 基金项目:国网西北分部D5000系统电网风险动态评估与智能决策控制功能建设项目(2018-00465-WDGS) |
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| Rapid generation method of high risk multiple fault set under natural disaster |
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CUI Wei1, LI Wujing1, NIU Shuanbao1, WANG Fenglei1, CHU Yunlong1, XUE Chen1, YANG Junjun2
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1.Northwest Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Xi’an 710000, China;2.NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106, China
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| Abstract: |
| Along with increasing complication of stability characteristic of power system, frequent occurrence of extreme natural disasters and increasing dependence of society on electrical energy, it is urgent to extent blackout defense framework to early-warning of natural disaster. A rapid generation method of high risk multiple fault set under natural disasters is proposed, which incorporates high risk anticipated faults into online security analysis. On the basis of considering multiple types of natural disasters and spatial-electrical coupling characteristics of electrical equipment in multiple locations, the combined probability of group faults and successive faults is calculated. Fault consequence is evaluated from three dimensions of grid structure vulnerability, power grid state vulnerability and power grid fault risk. The backtracking algorithm is adopted to quickly screen and generate high risk fault set under natural disasters. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are verified by a practical power grid case. |
| Key words: natural disaster fault probability high risk multiple faults backtracking algorithm |
