| In order to predict the hydrogen demand under the “double carbon” target, by fully excavating the influence factors related to the hydrogen demand, the prediction system of hydrogen demand in the transportation field based on system dynamics is constructed. The causality diagram and system flow diagram of the hydrogen demand prediction system in the transportation field are drawn, focusing on the hydrogen energy substitution of buses, heavy trucks and household cars. The validity of the model is tested by histo-rical data. Taking Xinjiang as an example, three development levels of low speed, medium speed and high speed are set to analyze the impact of policy support and economic input on the hydrogen demand in the transportation field. Simulative results show that the transformation of the transportation field is relatively slow before 2030. The impact of policy and economic investment is gradually obvious, and the higher deve-lopment levels, the larger the growth rate of various types of transportation vehicles. By 2050, the average hydrogen energy substitution rate at the high-speed development level will reach 2.2 times that at the low-speed development level, and the return on hydrogen sales will reach 2.5 times that at the low-speed deve-lopment level. |
