| Aiming at the problem that the operation reliability of wind turbines is easily affected by extreme weather, a reliability evaluation method of competitive failure of wind turbines considering the process of extreme weather impact is proposed. Considering the natural degradation of wind turbines, the instantaneous degradation caused by extreme weather impact and the accelerated degradation caused by the continuous process of extreme weather, a comprehensive degradation model of wind turbines under extreme weather is constructed. Considering the influence of wind turbine degradation process on its impact resistance ability, a competitive failure model of wind turbine is established to evaluate the reliability of wind turbine. Based on the engineering data of a wind farm in northern China and the historical data of extreme weather, the reliability of a 2 MW wind turbine is evaluated and the parameter sensitivity is analyzed. The results show that by the fifth year, the reliability of wind turbine is 0.84 by considering only natural degradation, and 0.178 by considering extreme weather impact process, which is more in line with engineering practice. Through the sensitivity analysis of model parameters, it is found that after the operation time exceeds 3 years, the degradation failure begins to gradually affect the reliability of wind turbines. |
