| 引用本文: | 郭小璇,龚仁喜,鲍海波.基于证据理论的风速不确定性建模[J].电力自动化设备,2019,39(1): |
| GUO Xiaoxuan,GONG Renxi,BAO Haibo.Modeling of wind speed uncertainty based on evidence theory[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2019,39(1): |
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| 摘要: |
| 风速决定了风电场的输出功率，风速模型是研究含风电系统运行与规划的重要基础。提出一种基于证据理论的风速不确定建模方法。采用证据理论中基本可信度分配的概念描述风速；提出依据实测历史数据确定基本可信度分配的焦元和信任函数的实现方法，并设计等概率区间和等取值区间2种建模策略。以某风电场实测风速为例对基于所建模型和基于概率分布及区间分布的模型进行仿真比较，结果表明所提模型能确定风速的似然累积概率分布和信任累积概率分布，能更有效地描述和处理风速不确定性信息。 |
| 关键词: 风速 风力发电 证据理论 基本可信度分配 似然累积概率分布 信任累积概率分布 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2019.01.012 |
| 分类号:TM614 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(61561007) |
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| Modeling of wind speed uncertainty based on evidence theory |
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GUO Xiaoxuan1,2, GONG Renxi1, BAO Haibo3
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1.School of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;2.Electric Power Research Institute of Guangxi Power Grid Corporation, Nanning 530023, China;3.Nanning Power Supply Bureau of Guangxi Power Grid Corporation, Nanning 530031, China
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| Abstract: |
| Wind speed determines the output power of a wind farm, and its model is an important basis for resear-ching the operation and planning of power system with wind power. A modeling method of wind speed uncertainty based on the evidence theory is proposed. The concept of BPA(Basic Probability Assignment) in the evidence theory is used to describe wind speed. The implementation method of determining the focal points and trust functions of BPA based on the measured historical data is proposed, and two modeling methods of equal probability interval and equal value interval are designed. Taking the measured wind speed of a wind farm as an example, the simulative results of the proposed model are compared with those of the probability distribution and interval distribution model, and the results show that the proposed model can determine the cumulative plausibility probability distribution and the cumulative belief probability distribution of wind speed, and can describe and deal with the uncertainty information of wind speed more effectively. |
| Key words: wind speed wind power evidence theory basic probability assignment cumulative plausibility probability distribution cumulative belief probability distribution |
