| 引用本文: | 葛少云,李吉峰,刘洪,王亦然,张鹏.考虑物理特征与行为因素的家庭用能特性建模[J].电力自动化设备,2019,39(3): |
| GE Shaoyun,LI Jifeng,LIU Hong,WANG Yiran,ZHANG Peng.Modelling of household energy consumption characteristics considering physical features and behavior factors[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2019,39(3): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对常规负荷建模与预测未考虑用户的行为特性，并且需要大量历史数据作为研究基础的问题，提出一种考虑物理特征与行为因素的家庭用能特性建模方法。以家庭能源中心作为研究对象，在介绍总体分析流程的同时，归纳外部需求、内部转换以及终端能源负荷类型；考虑物理特征与行为因素，建立电器设备的用能模型，并提出模型扩展方法；在此基础上，通过非侵入式负荷分解与马尔可夫链相结合的方法分析模拟用户的用能行为。算例分析表明，所提方法具有独立刻画负荷肖像曲线的能力，不再依赖大量数据进行派生驱动。 |
| 关键词: 家庭用户 负荷预测 用能细节 马尔可夫链 建模 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2019.03.006 |
| 分类号:TM715 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0903400)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(51777133) |
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| Modelling of household energy consumption characteristics considering physical features and behavior factors |
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GE Shaoyun, LI Jifeng, LIU Hong, WANG Yiran, ZHANG Peng
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Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
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| Abstract: |
| Aiming at the problem that modelling and prediction of conventional load do not consider user behavior characteristics and need to take massive historical data as the research basic, a modelling method of household energy consumption characteristics with the consideration of physical features and behavior factors is proposed. Taking the household energy center as the research object, the overall analysis flowchart is introduced, meanwhile the external demand, internal conversion and terminal energy load type are induced. Considering the physical features and beha-vior factors, the energy consumption model of electrical equipment is built and its expansion method is proposed. On this basis, the user energy consumption behavior is simulated with the combination of non-intrusive load decomposition and Markov chain. Case analysis shows that, the proposed method has the ability to depict load portrait curve independently and no longer depends on massive data for derivation drive. |
| Key words: household user load prediction energy consumption detail Markov chain modelling |
