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基于GMM及多点线性半不变量法的电-热互联综合能源系统概率潮流分析
廖星星1, 吴奕2, 卫志农1, 胡伟2, 杨梓俊2, 孙国强1, 臧海祥1
1.河海大学 能源与电气学院,江苏 南京 211100;2.国网江苏省电力有限公司,江苏 南京 210024
摘要:
提出了一种计及相关性的基于高斯混合模型(GMM)的多点线性半不变量法电-热互联综合能源系统概率潮流(PPF)计算方法。构建了电-热互联综合能源系统潮流模型,采用GMM建立电-热互联综合能源系统源荷不确定模型,针对其输出变量的不确定性提出了基于半不变量法的电-热互联综合能源系统PPF计算方法,定量计算出相关输出状态变量的概率密度函数。由于电-热互联综合能源系统中存在非线性问题导致线性化误差增大,采用多点线性的方法来克服这一难题。并且所提PPF方法进一步考虑了电-热负荷之间的相关性。最后,采用Cornish-Fisher级数展开拟合状态变量概率分布,在改进的巴厘岛电-热互联综合能源系统算例中验证了所提方法的快速性、准确性和实用性。
关键词:  电-热互联综合能源系统  高斯混合模型  概率潮流  半不变量法  多点线性  相关性
DOI:10.16081/j.epae.201908004
分类号:TM73
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51877071);国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(区域综合能源系统协同运行与优化调控关键技术研究及系统研发)(J2019024)
Probabilistic power flow analysis of integrated electricity-heat energy system based on GMM and multi-point linear cumulant methond
LIAO Xingxing1, WU Yi2, WEI Zhinong1, HU Wei2, YANG Zijun2, SUN Guoqiang1, ZANG Haixiang1
1.College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210024, China
Abstract:
A multi-point linear cumulant method based on GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model) considering correlation is put forward to calculate the integrated electricity-heat energy system PPF(Prababilistic Power Flow). The power flow model of integrated electricity-heat energy system is constructed, and the source-load uncertainty model of the system is proposed using GMM. In view of the uncertain output variables, the calculation method of integrated electricity-heat energy system PPF based on cumulant method is proposed, thus the probability density functions of related output state variables are calculated quantitatively. The multi-point linear method is adopted to overcome the large linearization error owing to the nonlinear problem of integrated electricity-heat energy system. Moreover, the proposed PPF method further considers the correlation between electric and thermal loads. Finally, the Cornish-Fisher series expansion is used to fit the probability distribution of state variables. The proposed method is proved to be fast, accurate and practical in the modified Bali integrated electricity-heat energy system case.
Key words:  integrated electricity-heat energy system  Gaussian mixture model  prababilistic power flow  cumulant method  multi-point linear  correlation

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