| 引用本文: | 王鹤,余中枢,李筱婧,边竞.基于主成分分析方法的多类型电动汽车接入配电网的综合风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2021,41(11): |
| WANG He,YU Zhongshu,LI Xiaojing,BIAN Jing.Comprehensive risk assessment of multiple types of electric vehicles connected to distribution network based on principal component analysis method[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2021,41(11): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对新能源和多种类型电动汽车(EV)接入配电网造成的安全和经济等运行风险问题，提出了一种考虑多种风险因素的配电网运行综合风险评估方法。首先，构建了风光出力和EV时序概率分布模型，并用日行驶里程数代替了主观设定的多种类型EV的起始荷电状态；然后，基于复杂网络理论，提出了电压越限风险和支路功率过载运行风险等时序安全指标，并根据配电网的经济运行建立了经济风险和电网高效性风险指标；再者，构造了不同容量EV并网运行风险评估矩阵，运用主成分分析(PCA)方法对风险评估矩阵进行降维和计算客观权重系数，并对结果进行综合风险评估排序；最后，以接入风电、光伏的改进IEEE 33节点配电系统为例，分析了所提风险指标的有效性和综合评估方法的合理性，对比了基于PCA的综合风险评估与传统安全风险评估方法，结果表明在同时考虑安全和经济等因素的情况下，采用所提方法时某范围内的运行风险有下降趋势，对某区域内的EV容纳数量规划有积极的指导意义。 |
| 关键词: 电动汽车 风险评估指标 复杂网络 主成分分析方法 综合评估 配电网 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202109007 |
| 分类号:U469.72;TM761 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFB1505400) |
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| Comprehensive risk assessment of multiple types of electric vehicles connected to distribution network based on principal component analysis method |
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WANG He1, YU Zhongshu1, LI Xiaojing2, BIAN Jing1
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1.Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China;2.State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130000, China
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| Abstract: |
| Aiming at the operational risks of safety and economy caused by the integration of new energy sources and multiple types of EVs(Electric Vehicles) to distribution network, a comprehensive risk assessment method of distribution network operation considering multiple risk factors is proposed. Firstly, the temporal probability distribution models of wind-photovoltaic output and EVs are constructed, and the subjective initial state-of-charge of multiple types of EVs is replaced by the daily mileage. Then, based on the complex network theory, the time-series safety indexes such as voltage overlimit risk and branch power overload operation risk are proposed, and the indexes of economic risk and network efficiency risk are established according to the economic operation of distribution network. Furthermore, the risk assessment matrix for grid-connected operation of EVs with different capacities is constructed, and the PCA(Principal Component Analysis) method is used to reduce the dimensionality of risk assessment matrix and calculate the objective weight coefficients, and the results are ranked by comprehensive risk assessment. Finally, taking the improved IEEE 33-bus distribution system with wind power and photovoltaic power as an example, the validity of the proposed risk indexes and the rationality of the comprehensive assessment method are analyzed, and the PCA based comprehensive risk assessment method is compared with the traditional safety risk assessment method. The results show that when the safety and economic factors are considered at the same time, the operation risk within a certain range has a downward trend when using the proposed method, which has a positive guiding significance for the planning of EV accommodative quantity in a certain region. |
| Key words: electric vehicles risk assessment indexes complex network principal component analysis method comprehensive assessment distribution network |
