| 引用本文: | 安睿,缪书唯.基于互Box-Cox变换和Markov链风速云模型的发电系统充裕度评估[J].电力自动化设备,2024,44(3):113-119,141 |
| AN Rui,MIAO Shuwei.Adequacy assessment of power generation system based on wind speed cloud model of mutual Box-Cox transform and Markov chain[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2024,44(3):113-119,141 |
|
| 摘要: |
| 为准确计及风速随机性和自相关性对风电并网系统充裕度的影响，建立基于互Box-Cox变换和Markov链的风速云模型，并将该模型与时序Monte Carlo模拟法结合，提出计及风速随机性和自相关性的风电并网系统充裕度评估方法。仿真结果表明，所提模型产生的仿真风速样本与实测风速样本具备相似的概率分布特性和自相关性，所提方法可较精确地评估风电并网系统充裕度及风电容量可信度。 |
| 关键词: Box-Cox变换 Markov链 混合半云模型 风速自相关性 充裕度评估 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202306009 |
| 分类号:TM614 |
| 基金项目:发明专利：一种计及风速随机性和自相关性的风电场可信容量评估方法(202310682143.4) |
|
| Adequacy assessment of power generation system based on wind speed cloud model of mutual Box-Cox transform and Markov chain |
|
AN Rui, MIAO Shuwei
|
|
College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
|
| Abstract: |
| In order to accurately consider the effect of wind speed randomness and autocorrelation on the adequacy of wind power integrated system, a wind speed cloud model based on mutual Box-Cox transform and Markov chain is established, and the model is combined with the time-series Monte Carlo simulation method, an adequacy assessment method of wind power integrated system is proposed considering the randomness and autocorrelation of wind speed. The simulative results show that the wind speed samples simulated by the proposed model have similar probability distribution characteristic and autocorrelation with the measured wind speed samples, and the proposed method can accurately assess the adequacy and wind power capacity credit of wind power integrated system. |
| Key words: Box-Cox transform Markov chain mixed half-cloud model wind speed autocorrelation adequacy assessment |
