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| 摘要: |
| 电力系统负荷预测受很多不确定因素的影响，往往单一预测模型反映的只是某一个或某几个不确定因素，在几个单一模型的基础上建立综合预测模型是降低这些影响、提高预测精度的有效途径。提出了运用自适应进化规划方法建立电力系统负荷预测综合模型，并对进化规划的变异操作、适应度计算及竞争选择方案进行了研究。通过对某地的年用电量进行预测分析，并与传统的基于“直接搜索寻优”法建立的综合预测模型进行比较、分析。结果表明，该方法具有全局寻优、自适应性强、通用笥好等优点，预测精度也有了很大提高。 |
| 关键词: 自适应进化规划 电力系统 负荷预测 综合模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TM715 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Integrated model of power system load forecasting based on self-adaptive evolutionary programming |
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XU Guang hu 1 SHEN Gang 1 GU Jie 1 CHENG Hao zhong 1 YANG Zong lin 2
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| Abstract: |
| Power system load forecasting is affected by many uncertain factors. Usually, an individual forecast model can only reflect the effect of one or several uncertain factors. To establish integrated forecast model is a good way to decrease such effects and increase the precision of forecast. The self adaptive evolutionary programming (SAEP) is presented to establish the integrated forecast model for power system load forecasting and to study the mutation operator, fitness function and competition selection scheme. The annual power demands of a region are forecasted, analyzed and compared with those forecasted by the integrated forecast model based on "optimization of direct search". It demonstrates that the SAEP method not only greatly improves the forecast precision, but also has the advantages of global optimization, strong self adaptability and excellent versatility. |
| Key words: power system,load forecasting,integrated model,evolutionary programming,self adaptation |
