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| 摘要: |
| 由于传统灰色预测模型固有的偏差和模型参数的固定选择，导致预测精度较低，不适应中长期负荷预测，对传统模型进行改进，包括对历史数据的平滑处理，模型参数修正，等维新息数据处理和对预测值的修正等，改进后的模型能够较好的预测中长期负荷。 |
| 关键词: 可变参数无偏灰色模型 中长期负荷预测 电力系统 灰色系统 负荷预测 灰色预测 灰色模型 无偏灰色模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TM715 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Unbiased grey-forecasting model with unfixed parameter for long-term load |
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ZHU Yun LE Xiu-fan
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| Abstract: |
| Because of the inherent bias in the traditional grey-forecasting model and the fixed choice of its parameter,the forecast precision is relatively low and unsuitable to the long-term forecasting.In this paper,the traditional model has been improved,including the historic data smoothing,model parameter modification,equal dimension new signal processing,and forecast result revision.The improved model can forecast the long-term load better. |
| Key words: load forecasting,grey forecasting,grey model,unbiased grey model,equal dimen-sion new signal |
