|
| 摘要: |
| 如何确定线路最优设计标准是电网抗灾投资决策的核心问题之一。目前线路设计标准决策缺乏定量的科学分析方法。根据自然灾害重现期与超越概率的基本定义,推导了灾害强度的区间概率计算公式,建立了灾害场景、发生概率与电网状态的对应关系;基于灾害经济学理论关于抗灾投资效益的"有无对比"计算原理,依据基准方案与电网差异化设计方案下三十年一遇、五十年一遇与百年一遇灾害场景的停电损失期望值差异,确定电网抗灾投资效益;根据重要线路设计标准不低于一般线路、500kV线路设计标准不低于220kV线路、500kV线路设计标准不低于三十年一遇等原则,设计了19种待选线路设计标准方案,选取效益投资比作为优选准则,建立了电网抗灾投资决策方法体系与相应的决策流程。应用所提出的方法对某省电网抗灾投资决策问题进行了计算。 |
| 关键词: 抗灾型电网 投资决策 灾害经济学 超越概率 区间概率 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TM727 |
| 基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目[GKJJSKF(2008)493]~~ |
|
| Research on investment decision-making method of disaster-proof power grid |
|
XU Guoxin XIA Qing KANG Chongqing
|
| Abstract: |
| The optimal design standard of transmission line is a key issue of investment decision-making for disaster-proof power grid. The current design criteria of transmission line are lack of the quantitative analysis methods. Based on the definitions of recurrence period and exceeding probability of natural disaster, the formula of interval probability is deduced to establish the mapping relationship between the natural disaster scenario and probability and the power grid state. By using the "with and without an... |
| Key words: disaster-proof power grid investment decision-making disaster economics exceeding probability interval probability |
