| 引用本文: | 江修波,吴文宣,陈祥伟.区间分析法在电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型中的应用[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(9): |
| JIANG Xiubo,WU Wenxuan,CHEN Xiangwei.Transformer life cycle cost model based on interval analysis[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(9): |
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| 摘要: |
| 提出了区间全寿命周期成本的分析方法以及电力变压器区间全寿命周期成本的估算模型?该模型涵盖了变压器生命周期内发生的一次投资成本?损耗成本?环境成本?运行维护成本?故障成本以及报废成本等,采用等年值法进行折算,通过比较年区间全寿命周期成本判断方案的经济性优劣?模型能够较为合理地将变压器全寿命周期成本各参数处理为区间数,在计算过程中全程考虑各参数的不确定性?采用 C++语言编制的运算软件IntervalCal进行区间成本估算,经过一次计算即可得到反映各参数不确定风险影响的变压器全寿命周期成本计算结果?最后以某省规划新建500 kV变电站变压器的选型决策为案例,采用基于度的排序方法对3个方案的区间全寿命周期成本进行比较,验证了该模型的有效性? |
| 关键词: 电力变压器 区间分析 区间全寿命周期成本 不确定性分析 风险分析 选型决策 模型 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（50777001）；安徽省自然科学基金重点项目（KJ2010A342） |
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| Transformer life cycle cost model based on interval analysis |
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JIANG Xiubo1, WU Wenxuan2, CHEN Xiangwei1
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1.College of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;2.Fujian Electricity Science Research Institute,Fuzhou 350007,China
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| Abstract: |
| The power transformer life cycle cost model is proposed based on the interval analysis,which covers the investment cost,loss cost,environment cost,operation and maintenance cost,failure cost and discard cost,produced in the life cycle of transformer and undertaken by the yearly-equivalence method. The best economy case is determined by comparing the yearly interval life cycle cost. Different parameters of transformer life cycle costs are reasonably treated as the interval numbers and the uncertainty of each parameter is taken into account in the whole calculation process. The computing software IntervalCal,programmed with C++ language,is used to estimate the interval cost,and only once is necessary to get the transformer life cycle cost containing the uncertain risk. The model is applied in the transformer selection of a 500 kV substation to verify its effectiveness. The interval life cycle costs of three schemes are calculated and the best one is determined by cost comparison. |
| Key words: electric transformers interval analysis life cycle cost uncertainty analysis risk analysis selection decision models |
