| 引用本文: | 陈 迁,徐 箭,孙元章,黄 磊,崔 挺.考虑气温影响的负荷模型参数不确定性建模[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(10): |
| CHEN Qian,XU Jian,SUN Yuanzhang,HUANG Lei,CUI Ting.Modeling of load model parameter uncertainty considering temperature[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(10): |
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| 摘要: |
| 气温变化会引起电力负荷构成的变化，从而会导致负荷模型参数发生改变。采用模型向量基理论，在统计调研郑州地区220 kV典型变电站日负荷曲线和负荷模型参数基础上，计算得到了各变电站夏季和冬季负荷模型参数。考虑负荷模型参数的不确定性，引入可信性理论，以所得的不同气温下各变电站负荷模型参数为样本，建立了负荷模型参数随气温变化的随机模糊变量模型，得到了郑州地区220 kV变电站的负荷模型参数随气温变化的随机模糊期望值。 |
| 关键词: 气温 负荷模型参数 不确定性分析 模型向量基 可信性理论 数学模型 |
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| 基金项目:国家科技部“十一五”支撑计划资助项目（2008BAA13B04）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51007067）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（5082008） |
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| Modeling of load model parameter uncertainty considering temperature |
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CHEN Qian, XU Jian, SUN Yuanzhang, HUANG Lei, CUI Ting
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School of Electrical Engineering，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China
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| Abstract: |
| The temperature variation may change the composition of load，resulting in the change of load model parameters. Based on the statistics of daily load curve and model parameters of 220 kV typical substation，the model vector radix theory is applied to calculate the load model parameters of summer and winter for different substations. With the load model parameters of different substations in different temperatures as samples and their uncertainty taken into account，the credibility theory is adopted to model the random fuzzy parameters of load model，by which the random fuzzy expectations of 220 kV substation load model parameters for different temperatures are obtained. |
| Key words: temperature load model parameters uncertainty analysis model vector radix reliability theory mathematical models |
