| 引用本文: | 黄元生,方 伟.基于灰色傅里叶变换残差修正的电力负荷预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(9): |
| HUANG Yuansheng,FANG Wei.Power load forecasting model with residual error correction based on gray Fourier transform[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(9): |
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| 摘要: |
| 提出基于灰色傅里叶变换残差修正的负荷预测模型，首先运用滑动平均法对原始数列进行改进，减弱异常值的影响；然后运用傅里叶变换对一般灰色预测模型进行改进，通过对残差进行修正，消除样本数据中偶然因素的影响。算例分析表明，与一般灰色预测模型和马尔可夫残差修正模型相比，该模型的预测精度有所提高，证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。 |
| 关键词: 负荷预测 模型 傅里叶变换 残差修正 灰色理论 |
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| Power load forecasting model with residual error correction based on gray Fourier transform |
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HUANG Yuansheng, FANG Wei
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Economic and Management Department，North China Electric Power University，Baoding 071000，China
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| Abstract: |
| A load forecasting model with residual error correction is presented based on the gray GM（1，1）model and the Fourier transform. Firstly，the sliding average method is applied to process the original data sequence for reducing the influence of abnormal values. Then，the Fourier transform is used to improve the general gray prediction model for removing the incidental factors from the sample data by correcting the residual. Case analysis shows the forecasting precision of the proposed model is better than that of the general grey model or the Markov error correction model，which proves its validity and practicability. |
| Key words: electric load forecasting models Fourier transforms error correction gray theory |
