| 引用本文: | 林少华,刘嘉宁,陈 东,贾宏杰,曾 沅,王丙东,王 恩,刘 哲.基于故障树理论的电网调度操作实时风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(5): |
| LIN Shaohua,LIU Jianing,CHEN Dong,JIA Hongjie,ZENG Yuan,WANG Bingdong,WANG En,LIU Zhe.Real-time risk assessment based on fault tree theory for power dispatch[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(5): |
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| 摘要: |
| 将风险理论引入到电网调度操作中，提出一种针对调度操作的实时风险评估方法。该方法利用故障树原理模拟调度操作执行过程，采用状态枚举方法分析操作风险状态，来计算执行调度操作给电网带来的影响。建立实用化调度操作风险指标体系。IEEE-RTS测试系统结果表明，所提操作风险评估方法能够为每一步操作关联风险指标，辅助操作人员提前制定风险预控措施。 |
| 关键词: 电力系统 故障树 调度操作 风险 设备故障 评估 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51277128）；广东电网调度操作安全风险量化评估模型研究及实用系统建设研究项目 |
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| Real-time risk assessment based on fault tree theory for power dispatch |
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LIN Shaohua1, LIU Jianing1, CHEN Dong1, JIA Hongjie2, ZENG Yuan2, WANG Bingdong2, WANG En2, LIU Zhe2
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1.Dispatching and Control Center，Guangdong Power Grid，Guangzhou 510699，China;2.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300072，China
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| Abstract: |
| A real-time risk assessment method is proposed for the operations of power dispatch，which，based on the risk theory，applies the fault tree principle to simulate the operational process of power dispatch and adopts the state enumeration method to analyze its risk state and estimate its impact on power grid. A practical risk index system is built. The results of IEEE-RTS test system show that，the proposed method associates each operational step with a risk index to help operators take precontrol measures. |
| Key words: electric power systems fault tree dispatch operation risks device failure assessment |
