| 引用本文: | 巫伟南,杨 军,胡文平,曾志力,于腾凯,刘 培.考虑输电线路故障特性的电网综合风险评估体系[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(6): |
| WU Weinan,YANG Jun,HU Wenping,ZENG Zhili,YU Tengkai,ＬＩＵ Ｐei.Power grid risk assessment system considering characteristics of transmission line failure[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(6): |
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| 摘要: |
| 输电线路在电力系统中承担着输送电力的重要任务，其故障特性具有随机性和模糊性，对电网安全运行具有重大影响。提出一种考虑输电线路故障特性的电网综合风险评估体系，建立基于云模型的输电线路故障概率预测模型，由输电线路状态评估数据生成正态分布云滴，从而预测输电线路故障概率；基于效用理论构建一套包括广义负荷损失、潜在连锁故障、电压越限和系统稳定指数的电网综合风险评估指标体系，能够扫描电网运行薄弱环节。以实际电网为算例，验证了考虑输电线路故障特性的电网综合风险评估体系的有效性和实用性。 |
| 关键词: 电力系统 输电 预测 云预测模型 效用理论 风险评估 层次分析法 熵值法 故障分析 |
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| Power grid risk assessment system considering characteristics of transmission line failure |
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WU Weinan1, YANG Jun1, HU Wenping2, ZENG Zhili1, YU Tengkai2, ＬＩＵ Ｐei1
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1.School of Electrical Engineering，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China;2.State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute，Shijiazhuang 050021，China
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| Abstract: |
| The random and fuzzy transmission line failure impacts severely on the operational safety of power grid，for which，a comprehensive risk assessment system with the consideration of its characteristics is proposed. A transmission line failure probability prediction model is built based on the cloud model，which generates the normally distributed clouds according to the data of transmission line state assessment to predict its failure probability. Based on utility theory，a comprehensive risk assessment index system is built for power grid，which includes the general load loss，potential cascading failure，voltage limit violation and system stability，which is used to scan the operational weakness of power grid. With a real power grid as a study case，the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed assessment system are verified. |
| Key words: electric power systems electric power transmission forecasting cloud prediction model utility theory risk assessment analytic hierarchy process entropy method failure analysis |
