| 引用本文: | 陈 烨,高亚静,张建成.基于离散Hopfield模式识别样本的GRNN非线性组合短期风速预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(8): |
| CHEN Ye,GAO Yajing,ZHANG Jiancheng.GRNN nonlinear combination model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on discrete Hopfield pattern recognition[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(8): |
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| 摘要: |
| 利用实时风速数据，建立基于离散Hopfield模式识别样本的广义回归神经网络（GRNN）非线性组合预测模型。在风速数据样本集经二维小波阈值去噪处理后，基于离散Hopfield识别历史数据中与待预测样本最相似的数据，并作为训练样本；将支持向量机、BP神经网络和Elman神经网络分别进行单项预测的结果作为输入向量，经GRNN进行非线性组合预测。采用某风电场的实际风速数据进行预测，结果验证了该预测模型的正确性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 风电 二维小波阈值去噪方法 离散Hopfield 模式识别 广义回归神经网络 非线性组合预测 模型 去噪 支持向量机 神经网络 预测 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51177047）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（12MS107） |
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| GRNN nonlinear combination model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on discrete Hopfield pattern recognition |
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CHEN Ye, GAO Yajing, ZHANG Jiancheng
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State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources， North China Electric Power University，Baoding 071003，China
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| Abstract: |
| With the real-time wind speed data，a GRNN（General Regression Neural Network） nonlinear combination model based on discrete Hopfield pattern recognition is built for short-term wind speed forecasting. After the wind speed data sample set is processed by the two-dimension wavelet threshold de-noising method，the historic data most similar to the sample to be forecasted are picked out by the discrete Hopfield identification and taken as the training sample. The forecasting results obtained respectively by the support vector machine，BP neural network and Elman neural network are taken as the input vectors of GRNN for the nonlinear combination forecasting. The forecasting results based on the real wind speed data of a wind farm verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model. |
| Key words: wind power two-dimension wavelet threshold de-noising method discrete Hopfield pattern recognition general regression neural network nonlinear combination forecasting models de-noising support vector machines neural networks forecasting |
