| 引用本文: | 谢应昭,卢继平.基于多项式正态变换和最大熵估计的含风电系统电压稳定概率分析[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(10): |
| XIE Yingzhao,LU Jiping.Probabilistic voltage stability analysis based on polynomial normal transformation and maximum entropy estimation for power system containing wind power[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(10): |
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| 摘要: |
| 为了合理计及随机变量相关性对电压稳定分析的影响，掌握负荷裕度概率分布信息，提出一种基于多项式正态变换和最大熵估计的含风电系统电压稳定概率分析方法。该方法利用多项式正态变换方法处理输入变量之间的相关性，结合点估计法将电压稳定概率分析问题转化为确定性负荷裕度非线性优化模型进行求解，计算负荷裕度的统计特征，采用最大熵估计方法估计负荷裕度概率密度函数；讨论风速参数、相关系数矩阵、风电接入容量以及风电场功率因数变化对负荷裕度概率特性的影响。算例分析表明，所提方法具有令人满意的计算精度，且计算效率高，能够满足系统信息及时获取的要求。 |
| 关键词: 多项式正态变换 点估计法 最大熵原理 负荷裕度 风电 稳定 概率 概率密度函数 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目（2007DA10512712205） |
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| Probabilistic voltage stability analysis based on polynomial normal transformation and maximum entropy estimation for power system containing wind power |
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XIE Yingzhao, LU Jiping
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State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology，Chongqing University，Chongqing 400044，China
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| Abstract: |
| A method of probabilistic analysis based on the polynomial normal transformation and maximum entropy estimation is proposed for the power system containing wind power to reasonably consider the influence of random variable correlation on the voltage stability analysis and obtain the probability distribution information of load margin. The polynomial normal transformation is adopted to deal with the correlation among input variables and the point estimation is used to transform the probabilistic voltage stability analysis into the deterministic nonlinear optimization model of load margin for solving. The statistic characteristics of load margin are calculated and the probability density function of load margin is estimated by the maximum entropy estimation. The influence of wind speed，correlation coefficient matrix，wind power penetration capacity and wind farm power factor on the probabilistic characteristics of load margin is discussed. Case analysis shows that，the proposed method has satisfactory calculation accuracy and high calculation efficiency，meeting the requirement of timely system information acquisition. |
| Key words: polynomial normal transformation point estimate method maximum entropy principle load margin wind power stability probability probability density function |
