| 引用本文: | 郑文杰,黄嘉健,孙 川,汪隆君.基于停电性质分类的多环节电网可靠性评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3): |
| ZHENG Wenjie,HUANG Jiajian,SUN Chuan,WANG Longjun.Reliability evaluation based on outage character classification for multi-level power grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3): |
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| 摘要: |
| 传统供电可靠性评估未全面考虑输电网因素和管理控制指标的影响，因此提出基于停电性质分类的多环节电网可靠性评估方法。该方法引入输配连接点建立多环节电网供电可靠性关系，采用可靠性网络等值法量化输电网故障对故障停电可靠性指标的影响，有效解决了数据缺失的问题并简化了工程；利用岭迹图筛选出主要电网生产管理控制指标、确定岭参数值，基于岭回归分析量化管理控制指标对预安排停电可靠性指标的影响，以便发掘管控增强措施。对某供电局进行供电可靠性评估，结果表明所提模型及方法能更加精准地评估电网可靠性指标。 |
| 关键词: 多环节电网 可靠性 评估 连接点 岭回归分析 停电 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51307063）；国家科技支撑计划项目（2013BAA01B02）；教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目（20120172120042） |
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| Reliability evaluation based on outage character classification for multi-level power grid |
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ZHENG Wenjie1, HUANG Jiajian1, SUN Chuan2, WANG Longjun2
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1.Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Technology，Electric Power Research Institute of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation，Guangzhou 510080，China;2.School of Electrical Power，South China University of Technology，Guangzhou 510640，China
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| Abstract: |
| Since the traditional reliability evaluation of power grid ignores the influences of transmission network factors and management control indexes，a method of reliability evaluation based on the outage character classification is proposed for multi-level power grid，which introduces the transmission-distribution connecting points to establish the reliability relationship between levels and applies the reliability network equivalent method to quantify the impact of transmission grid fault on the outage reliability index for solving the data lack problem and simplifying the engineering. The ridge trace curve is used to select the main management control indices and determine the ridge parameters. The ridge regression analysis is applied to quantify the impact of management control index on the scheduled outage reliability index for exploring the enhancement measures of management control. The power-supply reliability of a bureau is evaluated and the results show the proposed model and solution evaluate the grid reliability index more accurately. |
| Key words: multi-level power grid reliability evaluation connecting point ridge regression analysis outages |
