| 引用本文: | 李春海,李华强,刘勃江.基于过程免疫不确定性的工业用户电压暂降经济损失风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(12): |
| LI Chunhai,LI Huaqiang,LIU Bojiang.Risk assessment based on process immunity uncertainty for industrial customers’ financial losses due to voltage sags[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(12): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对现有评估方法难以有效刻画工业过程电压暂降响应特性及暂降事件严重度的缺点，提出了一种基于过程免疫时间及其不确定性的电压暂降经济损失分级评估模型。首先，基于过程免疫时间和设备敏感度不确定性，引入了过程免疫时间不确定性的概念，提出参数越限严重性指标，并结合最大熵理论确定电压暂降引起的过程物理参数越限概率；然后，建立了工业过程故障树分析模型，根据各级事件过程免疫时间特征，将暂降事件后果划分为正常、子过程中断和过程中断3个等级，根据暂降事件后果等级进行损失分级评估，有效地提高了经济损失评估精度。实例分析结果验证了所提模型的正确性和可行性。 |
| 关键词: 电压暂降 工业过程 电压暂降免疫力 经济损失 故障树 风险评估 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2016.12.021 |
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| Risk assessment based on process immunity uncertainty for industrial customers’ financial losses due to voltage sags |
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LI Chunhai, LI Huaqiang, LIU Bojiang
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College of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
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| Abstract: |
| As the existing assessment methods could not effectively depict the characteristics of industrial process response to voltage sag and the severity of voltage sag event, an evaluation model based on the PIT(Process Immunity Time) and its uncertainty is proposed to assess the classification of financial loss due to the voltage sag. A concept of PIT uncertainty is introduced based on the process immunity time and the uncertainty of equipment sensitivity, a severity index of parameter limit violation is proposed, and the limit violation probability of physical process parameter is determined based on the maximum entropy theory. A fault tree analysis model is established for the industrial process, all consequences of sag event are divided based on the PIT characteristics into three classes: normal, sub-process interruption and process interruption, and the classification of financial loss is assessed based the consequence class, which effectively improves the assessment precision. The results of case analysis verify the correctness and feasibility of the proposed model. |
| Key words: voltage sag industrial process voltage sag immunity financial losses fault tree risk assessment |
