| 引用本文: | 陈绍南,陈碧云,韦化,叶蕾.改进混合半云模型在不规则风速概率分布拟合中的应用[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(4): |
| CHEN Shaonan,CHEN Biyun,WEI Hua,YE Lei.Application of improved mixed half cloud model in probability distribution fitting for irregular wind speed[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(4): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对基于概率密度峰值法的混合半云模型存在的模型精度易受扰动风速影响的问题，提出了一种基于范数理论的混合半云模型峰值求解方法。首先，由风速历史数据获得风速概率密度统计离散点；然后，采用范数理论选取风速概率密度离散点的拟合多项式；最后，求取多项式的峰值点，并将其对应的风速值作为风速概率密度区域划分的边界，从而建立混合半云模型。结果表明：与基于概率密度峰值法的混合半云模型相比，所提方法可以有效地避免扰动风速对模型概率峰值选取的影响，模型拟合度保持在99 % 以上。所提方法提高了混合半云模型的鲁棒性和拟合精度，有效降低了“峰值偏离”对半云模型区域划分的影响。 |
| 关键词: 风速分布 概率密度 峰值法 混合半云模型 范数理论 拟合多项式 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2017.04.009 |
| 分类号:TM71 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Application of improved mixed half cloud model in probability distribution fitting for irregular wind speed |
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CHEN Shaonan, CHEN Biyun, WEI Hua, YE Lei
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Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China
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| Abstract: |
| As the precision of the mixed half cloud model based on the probability density peak-value is easily impacted by the disturbance of wind speed, a mixed half cloud model based on the norm theory is proposed to calculate the peak-value. The statistical discrete points of wind-speed probability density are obtained based on the historical data of wind speed and the norm theory is then applied to select a fitting polynomial for these discrete points. The peak point of the polynomial is then solved and its corresponding wind speed is used as the boundary to partition the probability density regions for building a mixed half cloud model. Simulative results show that, compared with the model based on the probability density peak-value, the model based on the norm theory can effectively avoid the impact of wind-speed disturbance on the peak-value selection, keeping its fitting goodness above 99 %. The proposed method improves the robustness and fitting accuracy of the mixed half cloud model and reduces the impact of peak-value deviation on the partition of its regions effectively. |
| Key words: wind speed distribution probability density peak-value method mixed half cloud model norm theory fitting polynomial |
