| 引用本文: | 李亚琼,周胜军,王同勋,雷林绪.基于优选带宽核密度估计的谐波概率潮流分析方法[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(8): |
| LI Yaqiong,ZHOU Shengjun,WANG Tongxun,LEI Linxu.Harmonic probabilistic power-flow analysis based on kernel density estimation with optimized bandwidth design[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(8): |
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| 摘要: |
| 为解决蒙特卡罗法的计算效率问题，提出小规模样本仿真与非参数概率密度估计法相结合的谐波概率潮流分析方法。在对核密度函数的带宽选择进行优选设计的基础上，利用核密度估计法对小样本仿真得到的谐波潮流结果集进行概率密度估计，得到受影响电网节点的谐波含量的概率分布。利用OpenDSS配电网仿真工具对IEEE 13节点标准配电系统进行仿真实验，通过与蒙特卡罗法进行对比，验证了核密度估计方法的有效性和计算效率；与其他2种带宽选择方法的对比实验表明，所提带宽选择方法具备更好的带宽自适应性，且估计性能更优。 |
| 关键词: 核密度估计 蒙特卡罗法 谐波概率潮流 非参数估计 OpenDSS |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2017.08.017 |
| 分类号:TM711 |
| 基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目(SGRI-DL-71-15-008) |
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| Harmonic probabilistic power-flow analysis based on kernel density estimation with optimized bandwidth design |
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LI Yaqiong, ZHOU Shengjun, WANG Tongxun, LEI Linxu
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Global Energy Interconnection Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China
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| Abstract: |
| A method of harmonic probabilistic power-flow analysis combining the small-scale sample simulation with the non-parametric probability density estimation is proposed to solve the computational efficiency problem of Monte Carlo method. The kernel density estimation method with the optimally designed bandwidth selection of kernel density function is adopted to estimate the probabilistic density of the harmonic power-flow set achieved by the small-scale sample simulation for obtaining the harmonic probability distribution of affected nodes. Simulation is performed based on OpenDSS for Standard IEEE 13-bus distribution system and the results are compared with those by the Monte Carlo method to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. The comparative experiment shows that, the proposed bandwidth selection method has better bandwidth adaptability and estimation performance than other two bandwidth selection methods. |
| Key words: kernel density estimation Monte Carlo methods harmonic probabilistic power-flow non-parametric estimation OpenDSS |
