| 引用本文: | 张籍,杜治,谢瀚阳,蔡勇,陈艳波,颜炯,谢东.基于不确定随机系统的新一代智能变电站可靠性分析[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(9): |
| ZHANG Ji,DU Zhi,XIE Hanyang,CAI Yong,CHEN Yanbo,YAN Jiong,XIE Dong.NGSS reliability analysis based on uncertain stochastic system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(9): |
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| 摘要: |
| 建设新一代智能变电站(NGSS)是破解当前智能变电站技术推进瓶颈、实现未来智能电网发展的迫切需求，而NGSS的可靠性分析是其中重要的环节。为了解决NGSS可靠性分析中新型设备的可靠性指标表征问题，提出了基于不确定随机系统的NGSS可靠性分析方法，其特点在于：新型设备可靠性指标统计缺乏时，所提方法仍能进行可靠性分析；可靠性分析结果以不确定期望和一定置信度下的区间表示。算例仿真验证了所提方法的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 新一代智能变电站 可靠性分析 不确定测度 不确定随机系统 不确定期望 置信度 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2017.09.030 |
| 分类号:TM73 |
| 基金项目:国网湖北省电力公司科技项目(新一代智能变电站设计方案和技术经济性研究)(15KJ020602D20042) |
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| NGSS reliability analysis based on uncertain stochastic system |
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ZHANG Ji1, DU Zhi1, XIE Hanyang2, CAI Yong3, CHEN Yanbo2, YAN Jiong1, XIE Dong1
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1.Economic and Technology Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company, Wuhan 430077, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;3.State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company, Wuhan 430077, China
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| Abstract: |
| Construction of NGSS(New Generation Smart Substation) is an active demand to break the bott-leneck of propelling the smart substation technology and to realize the development of future smart grid, while NGSS reliability analysis is an important part. A method of NGSS reliability analysis based on the uncertain stochastic system is proposed to represent the reliability indices of new NGSS equipments, which can still perform the reliability analysis when the reliability index statistics of new equipment are lacking, and the results of reliability analysis are given as the uncertain expectations and confidence level intervals. Simulation examples verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: new generation smart substation reliability analysis uncertainty measures uncertain stochastic system uncertain expectation confidence level |
