| 引用本文: | 周能萍,吴峰.基于风浪和灰色模型的波浪能发电系统输出功率短期预测[J].电力自动化设备,2018,(5): |
| ZHOU Nengping,WU Feng.Wind-wave and grey model based short-term output power prediction of wave energy generation system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2018,(5): |
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| 摘要: |
| 波浪能具有随机波动性，会对波浪能发电并网以及电力系统的安全稳定产生重要影响，准确预测波浪能可为电力调度控制带来极大便利。提出基于风浪和灰色模型的波浪能发电系统功率预测方法，在波功率历史数据不足或缺省的情况下，能够依据风浪相关性及风速历史数据有效预测波浪功率。首先分析了风与波浪的相关性和时延特性，建立风浪经验模型对波高进行短期预测，并利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对波浪短期预测结果进行残差修正。在此基础上，基于直驱式波浪能发电系统分析并建立了波高功率转换模型。通过实例分析对波浪能发电功率的预测结果进行了验证。 |
| 关键词: 发电系统 波浪能 风浪经验模型 灰色模型 功率预测 短期预测 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2018.05.008 |
| 分类号:TM743 |
| 基金项目:优秀青年科学基金资助项目(51422701);111引智计划“新能源发电与智能电网学科创新引智基地”(B14022) |
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| Wind-wave and grey model based short-term output power prediction of wave energy generation system |
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ZHOU Nengping, WU Feng
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College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
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| Abstract: |
| Wave is fluctuant, and its volatility and uncertainty will have impacts on the grid-connection of wave energy generation system and the reliable and safe operation of power system. The accurate output power prediction of wave energy generation system can bring great convenience to the control and dispatching of power system. A prediction method based on the wind-wave and grey model is proposed. When the historical data of wave power is insufficient or default, it can effectively predict the output power of wave energy generation system according to the wind-wave correlation and historical data of wind speed. The wind-wave correlation and the time-delay characteristic are analyzed, and the wind-wave empirical model is established to predict the short-term wave height, with further resi-dual correction using grey GM(1,1) model. Based on the direct-drive wave energy generation system, the transformation model between wave height and wave power is built. Using the measured data of wind and wave, the output power of wave energy generation system is predicted, and the proposed models are validated. |
| Key words: power generation system wave energy wind-wave empirical model grey model power prediction short-term prediction |
