| 引用本文: | 赵书强,胡利宁,田捷夫,许朝阳.基于中长期风电光伏预测的多能源电力系统合约电量分解模型[J].电力自动化设备,2019,39(11): |
| ZHAO Shuqiang,HU Lining,TIAN Jiefu,XU Zhaoyang.Contract power decomposition model of multi-energy power system based on mid-long term wind power and photovoltaic electricity forecasting[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2019,39(11): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对大量新能源参与的电力系统中长期运行，提出考虑电量分解与检修计划相互影响的含风光水能源的电力系统合约电量分解模型。以新能源消纳和检修经济性为目标，旨在合理分解电量的同时提高新能源在资源丰富时段的消纳率，并根据资源分布和各时段能源参与情况安排各类机组检修计划，从而保证机组检修的经济性。由于风光资源的不确定性，从数据挖掘角度出发，提出基于聚类方法的光伏电量预测方法和非参数核密度估计的风电电量预测方法，并以此作为含风光水能源电力系统合约电量分解的基础。最后，通过算例验证了所提模型在含风光水多种能源的电力系统电量分解及机组检修联合优化中的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 中长期运行 合约电量分解 检修计划 聚类算法 核密度估计 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.201911018 |
| 分类号:TM73;F123.9 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFB0902200)；国家电网公司科技项目(5228001700CW) |
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| Contract power decomposition model of multi-energy power system based on mid-long term wind power and photovoltaic electricity forecasting |
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ZHAO Shuqiang, HU Lining, TIAN Jiefu, XU Zhaoyang
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State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
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| Abstract: |
| In view of the mid-long term operation of power system with significant penetration of renewable energy, a contract power decomposition model with wind/photovoltaic/hydro generators is proposed conside-ring both power decomposition and unit maintenance plan. The contract power decomposition model can improve the accommodation of renewable energy sources during peak-output periods and minimize the maintenance cost. Meanwhile, the unit maintenance plans are prepared according to the distribution of resources, which ensures the economics of unit maintenance. In addition, due to the uncertainty of wind and solar resources, the photovoltaic power is forecasted using clustering method and the non-parametric kernel density estimation is adopted for wind power forecasting from the perspective of data mining. These predictive values are useful for the contract power decomposition of a multi-energy power system with wind/photovoltaic/hydro generators. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model in the joint optimization of power decomposition and unit maintenance of power system with wind/photovoltaic/hydro generators is verified by a case study. |
| Key words: mid-long term operation contract power decomposition maintenance plan clustering algorithm kernel density estimation |
