| 引用本文: | 马燕峰,李鑫,刘金山,霍亚欣,陈磊,赵书强.考虑风电场时空相关性的多场景优化调度[J].电力自动化设备,2020,40(2): |
| MA Yanfeng,LI Xin,LIU Jinshan,HUO Yaxin,CHEN Lei,ZHAO Shuqiang.Multi-scenario optimal dispatch considering temporal-spatial correlation of wind farms[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2020,40(2): |
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| 摘要: |
| 相邻风电场出力由于地理环境与气候条件相似而具有较强的相关性，因此构建风电相关性模型以及合理的调度模型对大规模风电并网意义重大。基于混合Copula函数和连续马尔科夫链模型构建多维时序风速相关性模型，并根据抽样产生的大量模拟场景聚类生成典型场景；构建基于场景分析的机组组合两阶段调度模型，以得到满足所有典型场景的机组启停和各场景的调度方案，并根据典型场景与模拟场景的偏差基于机会约束理论设定模型中的风电备用需求系数，以提高系统运行的可靠性与经济性。以10机2风电场系统为例进行仿真分析，结果验证了所建模型的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 风速相关性 混合Copula函数 连续马尔科夫链模型 典型场景 两阶段调度模型 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202001010 |
| 分类号:TM614 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0902200)；国家电网公司科技项目(5228001700CW) |
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| Multi-scenario optimal dispatch considering temporal-spatial correlation of wind farms |
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MA Yanfeng1, LI Xin1, LIU Jinshan2, HUO Yaxin1, CHEN Lei3, ZHAO Shuqiang1
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1.State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electric Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China;2.State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company, Xining 810008, China;3.State Grid Hengshui Power Supply Company, Hengshui 053000, China
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| Abstract: |
| The output of adjacent wind farms has strong correlation because of the similarity of geographical environment and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct wind power correlation model and reasonable dispatching model for large-scale wind power integration. A multivariate time-series wind speed correlation model is built based on the mixed Copula function and the continuous state Markov chain model, and a typical scenario is generated by clustering a large number of simulated scenarios generated by sampling. A two-stage unit commitment dispatching model based on scenario analysis is built to obtain the unit start-stop scheme satisfying all typical scenarios and the dispatching scheme of each scenario, and according to the deviation between the typical scenario and simulation scenario, the reserve demand coefficient of wind power in the model is set based on chance constraint theory to improve the reliability and economy of system operation. A 10-generator 2-wind farm system is taken as an example for simulation and analysis, and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. |
| Key words: wind speed correlation mixed Copula function continuous state Markov chain model typical scenario two-stage dispatching model |
