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| 摘要: |
| 根据模糊数学理论和熵的性质，建立了应用于电力系统中长期负荷预测的模糊熵模型。该模型采用最大模糊熵的高斯聚类算法，根据历史年各项经济和人口指标，将其进行分类，然后将预测年各项指标与各类的特征指标相比较，从而预测出该年的负荷增长率。实际算例表明建立在模糊熵基础上的这种模型是有效的。 |
| 关键词: 中长期负荷预测 模糊数学 模糊熵 聚类 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TM714 TP273.4 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Study on maximum fuzzy entropy model of mid-and long-term load forecast in power system |
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GU Jie CUI Min
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the fuzzy set theory and properties of entropy,a fuzzy entropy model for power system mid-and long-term load forecast is proposed.Gauss clustering method of maximum fuzzy entropy is applied,which classifies the economics and population targets of past years and compares them with those of future years to forecast the load increase rate.With a practical example,its validity is demonstrated. |
| Key words: mid-and long-term load forecast,fuzzy mathematics,fuzzy entropy,cluster |
