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| 摘要: |
| 油中溶解气体浓度分析被广泛用于监测油浸电力设备的早期故障。将改进灰色模型引入变压器油中溶解气体浓度预测。分析了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)和离散灰色预测模型DGM(1,1)两者之间的关系,讨论了模型预测的准确性和稳定性。分别用GM(1,1)模型和DGM(1,1)模型对变压器油中溶解气体浓度进行建模预测。对比分析结果表明:GM(1,1)模型从离散形式到连续形式的跳跃使得模型不够稳定,随着发展系数的增加,预测精度下降。DGM(1,1)模型是GM(1,1)模型的精确形式,具有更高的预测精度和较好的稳定性,被推荐替代GM(1,1)模型预测变压器油中溶解气体浓度。 |
| 关键词: 变压器,油中溶解气体,离散灰色模型,预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TM855 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Prediction of gas dissolved in transformer oil using discrete grey model |
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SUN Li-ping YANG Jiang-tian
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| Abstract: |
| Dissolved gas analysis is widely used to detect incipient faults in oil-filled power equip-ments.The modified grey model is introduced to predict the gas dissolved in oil of power trans-formers.The relationship between the grey model(GM(1,1) model) and the discrete grey model(DGM(1,1) model) is analyzed,and their prediction precisions and stabilities are discussed.The gas-in-oil concentration of a power transformer is predicted using the GM(1,1) model and the DGM(1,1) model respectively.Results show that,the transform of the GM(1,1) model from discrete form to continuous form makes the model unstable,and the prediction precision decreases along with the increase of the development coefficient.The DGM(1,1) model,as the precise form of the GM(1,1) model,has better precise and stability,with which it is suggested to replace the GM(1,1) model in gas-in-oil prediction. |
| Key words: transformer,dissolved gas,discrete grey model,prediction |
