| 引用本文: | 周任军,黄灵资,王 靓,杨雨薇,范文帅,刘阳升.基于风险和条件风险方法的光伏电站并网极限容量计算[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(6): |
| ZHOU Renjun,HUANG Lingzi,WANG Liang,YANG Yuwei,FAN Wenshuai,LIU Yangsheng.Capacity limit calculation based on risk and conditional risk method for grid-connected photovoltaic power station[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(6): |
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| 摘要: |
| 大规模光伏电站并网会影响电网的安全稳定运行，因此其并网极限容量受到限制。提出了风险和条件风险的随机性优化方法，建立了并网光伏电站极限容量计算的条件风险随机优化模型，该模型以光伏电站并网极限容量为优化目标，同时考虑了极端情况的影响。为了解决条件风险函数直接计算困难的问题，采用蒙特卡罗模拟和解析法将条件风险函数变换和离散化。仿真结果表明，该模型适用于考虑了光照强度随机变化情况下的并网光伏电站极限容量的计算，计算量小，准确性较高。 |
| 关键词: 光伏 电站 太阳辐射 优化 模型 蒙特卡罗法 风险 计算 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（11171095，10871031） |
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| Capacity limit calculation based on risk and conditional risk method for grid-connected photovoltaic power station |
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ZHOU Renjun, HUANG Lingzi, WANG Liang, YANG Yuwei, FAN Wenshuai, LIU Yangsheng
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Smart Grids Operation and Control Key Laboratory of Hunan Province，Changsha University of Science and Technology，Changsha 410114，China
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| Abstract: |
| Since the connection of large-scale photovoltaic power station to power grid may impact the stable operation of power grid，its maximum capacity is restricted. For calculating it，the stochastic optimization model based on the risk and conditional risk method is proposed，which takes the maximum capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic power station as its optimal goal and considers the impact of extreme situation as well. Monte Carlo simulation and analytical method are used to transform and discretize the conditional risky function for avoiding the difficulty of direct calculation. Simulative results show that，the model considers the random variation of light intensity and has small calculation load and high accuracy. |
| Key words: photovoltaic power station solar radiation optimization models Monte Carlo methods risks calculations |
