| 引用本文: | 吴 薇,刘俊勇,张建明,刘友波,张国芳,王佳佳.计及风险影响的水电厂长期电量优化分配[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(9): |
| WU Wei,LIU Junyong,ZHANG Jianming,LIU Youbo,ZHANG Guofang,WANG Jiajia.Optimal long-term hydropower generation allocation to reduce overall risk[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(9): |
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| 摘要: |
| 基于水电时空分布特性，考虑电价波动、来水不确定性等因素，将发电量进行时间分解和空间分配以降低系统整体风险。以完全市场模式下水电厂年发电量在各时段多个市场中的分解为例，建立了在期望利润约束下以最小化风险为目标的多时段多市场发电量分配模型，分析电价波动、来水不确定性、丰平枯水年以及水电机组特性对目标函数的影响。仿真表明，该模型能够反映水电时空分布下面临的市场风险本质特性，使其在保证系统安全可靠的同时承担最小的风险，从而验证了该模型的合理性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 时空分布 电价波动 来水不确定 风险评估 水电 优化 调度 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（50977059） |
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| Optimal long-term hydropower generation allocation to reduce overall risk |
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WU Wei1, LIU Junyong1, ZHANG Jianming2, LIU Youbo1, ZHANG Guofang2, WANG Jiajia2
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1.School of Electrical Engineering and Information，Sichuan University，Chengdu 610065，China;2.Sichuan Electric Power Company，Chengdu 610065，China
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| Abstract: |
| With the consideration of price fluctuation and other factors，the power generation is allocated spatially and temporally to reduce the system overall risk. As an example，the annual power generation of a hydropower station is allocated to different periods and multiple markets in the complete market pattern. Its optimization model is established with the minimum risk as its objective and the expectative profit as its restraint，and the influences of electricity price fluctuation，rainfall uncertainty，annual runoff variation and hydropower unit characteristics on the objective function are analyzed. Simulation indicates that，the proposed model reflects the essential characteristic of hydropower market risk and ensures the safe and reliable system operation with the smallest risk，which verifies the rationality and validity of the model. |
| Key words: spatial and temporal distribution price fluctuation water uncertainty risk assessment hydropower optimization dispatch |
