| 引用本文: | 刘继东,韩学山,楚成博,张 利.考虑非气象因素的电网夏季降温负荷研究[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(2): |
| LIU Jidong,HAN Xueshan,CHU Chengbo,ZHANG Li.Cooling load of summer grid considering non-meteorological factors[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(2): |
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| 摘要: |
| 考虑非气象因素，对夏季降温负荷进行研究。在分析降温负荷与温度因子关系的基础上，对回归模型中降温负荷的常量和变量部分与相应关键影响因素进行进一步的相关性分析，揭示经济因子和区位电能消费倾向因子对电网夏季降温负荷的影响并提出一种新的负荷模型。该模型可根据日最高气温、GDP和城乡人口统计数据的有机组合，实现夏季降温负荷变化规律的有效分析。山东电网夏季降温负荷的规律分析验证了该模型的有效性和适用性。 |
| 关键词: 降温负荷 温度 经济 倾向因子 回归分析 模型 负荷 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51077087）；山东省自然科学基金资助项目（Y2008F19） |
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| Cooling load of summer grid considering non-meteorological factors |
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LIU Jidong, HAN Xueshan, CHU Chengbo, ZHANG Li
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Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education，
Shandong University，Ji’nan 250061，China
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| Abstract: |
| The non-meteorological factors are taken into consideration in the research of power load for summer cooling. Based on the relationship between cooling load and temperature factor，the correlation between the constant and variable parts of the cooling load in the regressive model and the corresponding influencing factors are analyzed，which reveals the impact of the economic factor and the habitual factor of regional electricity consumption on the cooling load in summer，and a revised load model is proposed，which analyzes effectively the change rule of cooling load according to the daily maximum temperature，GDP and regional population. The results of cooling load analysis for summer of Shandong Ｇrid prove the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model. |
| Key words: power load for cooling temperature economics habit factor regression analysis models electric loads |
