| 引用本文: | 王 涛,王兴武,顾雪平,贾京华.基于概率及结构重要度的电力系统事故链模型与仿真[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(7): |
| WANG Tao,WANG Xingwu,GU Xueping,JIA Jinghua.Power system fault chain model and simulation based on probability and structural importance[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(7): |
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| 摘要: |
| 通过分析电力系统连锁故障的一般演化规律，在已有的事故链模型基础上，提出一种同时考虑事故概率重要度和设备在网络中的结构重要度的事故链中间环节的预测指标。采用离差最大化的灰色关联度算法综合考虑各类指标，构建电网连锁故障的事故链搜索模型。采用IEEE-RTS系统仿真得到风险值较大的事故链集合，仿真结果验证了所提模型的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 电力系统 连锁故障 大停电 事故链 故障分析 多属性决策 模型 仿真 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51077052）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（１３ＭＳ１０８） |
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| Power system fault chain model and simulation based on probability and structural importance |
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WANG Tao1, WANG Xingwu1, GU Xueping1, JIA Jinghua2
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1.School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering，North China Electric Power University，Baoding 071003，China;2.Hebei Power Dispatch and Communication Center，Shijiazhuang 050021，China
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| Abstract: |
| The general evolution pattern of power system cascading failure is analyzed and a prediction index is proposed for the intermediate events of fault chain based on the present fault chain model，which considers both the probability importance of fault and the structural importance of equipment in network. The grey rational algorithm with maximum deviation is used to comprehensively consider various indicators and a fault chain search model is built for power system cascading failure. Simulation on IEEE-RTS system is carried out to obtain the fault chain set with larger risk value and the simulative result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model. |
| Key words: electric power systems cascading failure large scale blackout fault chain failure analysis multiple attribute decision making models computer simulation |
