| 引用本文: | 杨锡运,刘 欢,张 彬,肖运启.组合权重相似日选取方法及光伏输出功率预测[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(9): |
| YANG Xiyun,LIU Huan,ZHANG Bin,XIAO Yunqi.Similar day selection based on combined weight and photovoltaic power output forecasting[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(9): |
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| 摘要: |
| 提出一种光伏功率预测方法，该方法利用相似变量的基值点误差，采用组合权重法求取相似误差，确定相似日，然后将相似日的输出功率按不同权重系数加权得到预测功率。根据最小鉴别信息原理，将主观权重和客观熵权有效融合获得相似日选取的组合权重系数，功率权重系数按相似性指标生成。某光伏电站实测数据算例仿真表明，所提方法可选出相似度高的相似日，提高了光伏输出功率的预测精度。 |
| 关键词: 光伏阵列 功率预测 相似日选取 组合权重 熵权法 最小鉴别信息原理 预测 误差分析 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（61074094，51207049）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（13MS25，12MS59）；北京市自然科学基金资助项目（4132061） |
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| Similar day selection based on combined weight and photovoltaic power output forecasting |
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YANG Xiyun1, LIU Huan2, ZHANG Bin3, XIAO Yunqi1
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1.Department of Control and Computer Engineering，North China Electric Power University，Beijing 102206，China;2.Xi’an Thermal Power Research Institute Co.，Ltd.，Xi’an 710032，China;3.Beijing Huaneng Xinrui Control Technology Co.，Ltd.，Beijing 100098，China
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| Abstract: |
| A method of photovoltaic power output forecasting is proposed，which，based on the deviations of similar variable at basic points，applies the combined weight to calculate the similarity deviation for the similar day selection，and then forecasts the power output by calculating the weighted sum of the similar day power outputs. The combined weight coefficient of selected similar day is the combination of the subjective weight and objective entropy according to the minimum discrimination information principle while the power weight coefficient is generated according to the similarity index. A case study based on the actual data of a photovoltaic plant shows that，the similar days selected by the proposed method have higher similarity，resulting in higher power forecasting accuracy. |
| Key words: photovoltaic arrays power forecasting similar day selection combined weights entropy weight method minimum discrimination information principle forecasting error analysis |
