| 引用本文: | 郑秀波,张永凯,别朝红,林 勇.计及检修需求不确定性的电力系统检修备用容量评估[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(10): |
| ZHENG Xiubo,ZHANG Yongkai,BIE Zhaohong,LIN Yong.Maintenance reserve capacity evaluation considering uncertainty of maintenance demands for power system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(10): |
|
| 摘要: |
| 针对电力系统规划中评估系统检修备用容量的迫切需求和机组检修需求的不确定特性对评估造成的影响，提出一种评估电力系统检修备用容量的方法。该方法建立考虑检修需求不确定特性的检修备用容量评估模型，以累计负荷最小为原则确定检修时段，求解该评估模型。在此基础上，基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法提出检修备用容量不足概率和检修备用容量不足期望值2个检修备用容量充裕度指标，以此确定系统检修备用容量，进而确定系统装机容量需求。以某省电力系统机组检修的实际数据为例进行计算，证明了所提检修备用容量评估方法的正确性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 检修 备用容量 检修需求不确定 蒙特卡洛方法 检修备用容量不足概率 检修备用容量不足期望值 电力系统 规划 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:基金项目：国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）资助项目（2012-AA050201） |
|
| Maintenance reserve capacity evaluation considering uncertainty of maintenance demands for power system |
|
ZHENG Xiubo1, ZHANG Yongkai2, BIE Zhaohong2, LIN Yong1
|
|
1.Power Grid Planning Center，Guangdong Power Grid Company，Guangzhou 510080，China;2.State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment，Xi’an Jiaotong University，Xi’an 710049，China
|
| Abstract: |
| Since the power system planning needs urgently the maintenance reserve capacity evaluation but the uncertainty of unit maintenance demands influences greatly the evaluation，a method of maintenance reserve capacity evaluation is proposed，which builds a model of maintenance reserve capacity evaluation considering the uncertainty of maintenance demands and adopts the minimum accumulated load principle to determine the maintenance period for solving the model. Two maintenance reserve capacity adequacy indices based on Monte Carlo simulation method are proposed for determining the system maintenance reserve capacity and further the system capacity requirement. They are the loss of maintenance reserve capacity probability and the expected maintenance reserve capacity not supplied. A case study based on the actual unit maintenance data of a power system verifies the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: maintenance reserve capacity uncertainty of maintenance demands Monte Carlo methods loss of maintenance reserve capacity probability expected maintenance reserve capacity not supplied electric power systems planning |
