| 引用本文: | 林 鹏,赵书强,谢宇琪,胡永强.基于实测数据的风电功率曲线建模及不确定估计[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(4): |
| LIN Peng,ZHAO Shuqiang,XIE Yuqi,HU Yongqiang.Wind power curve modeling based on measured data and uncertainty estimation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(4): |
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| 摘要: |
| 比较了最大值法、最大概率法和比恩法这3种风电功率曲线建模方法，指出利用比恩法绘制的基于实测现场数据的风电功率曲线，与风力发电机组的实际运行更吻合。对风电功率曲线的不确定因素进行分析，由于全局风功率分布并不满足某一特定分布，通过分区拟合对风速进行分级；再采用一种非参数区间估计方法，建立各风速等级的功率概率密度函数；在点估计的基础上求取风电功率曲线的不确定估计区间，使风电功率曲线具有较高的可靠性。算例验证了所提出方法的有效性及实用性。 |
| 关键词: 风电 功率曲线 实测 建模 不确定估计 分区拟合 非参数区间估计 可靠性 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（12MS106） |
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| Wind power curve modeling based on measured data and uncertainty estimation |
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LIN Peng, ZHAO Shuqiang, XIE Yuqi, HU Yongqiang
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State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources，North China Electric Power University，Beijing 102206，China
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| Abstract: |
| Three methods of wind power curve modeling are compared：maximum value method，maximum probability method and method of bins. It is pointed out that the wind power curve drawn by the method of bins according to the measured field data better reflects the actual operation of wind turbine. The uncertainty factors of the wind power curve are analyzed and the wind speed is classified by the partitioned fitting because the global wind power does not satisfy a particular distribution. A method of non-parametric confidence interval estimation is applied to establish the probability density function of wind power for each wind speed level. The uncertainty estimation interval of wind power curve is obtained based on the point estimations to make the wind power curve more reliable. The example analysis proves the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed method. |
| Key words: wind power power curve measurements model buildings uncertainty estimation partitioned fitting non-parametric interval estimation reliability |
