| 引用本文: | 何成明,王洪涛,王春义,韦仲康.风电功率爬坡事件作用下考虑时序特性的系统风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(1): |
| HE Chengming,WANG Hongtao,WANG Chunyi,WEI Zhongkang.Risk assessment considering time-sequence characteristics for power system with wind power ramp event[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(1): |
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| 摘要: |
| 与常规的风电功率随机波动相比，风电功率爬坡事件具有明显的时序特性。为准确评估其对系统运行风险的影响，分析风电功率爬坡事件的特点及发生过程，并基于非序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法推导与之相适应的常规机组停运模型。通过对常规机组可能停运时刻和对应的运行状态分别进行抽样，考虑爬坡事件与常规机组停运之间的时序关系对评估结果的影响。在计及低频减载及AGC调节作用的基础上，采用频率越限次数和失负荷期望对系统运行风险进行评估。以IEEE RTS 24节点系统为例，对多种场景下系统运行风险进行评估及对比分析，验证了所提模型的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 风电 爬坡事件 风险评估 时序特性 蒙特卡罗法 |
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| 基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）资助项目（2011-AA05A101）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51177092） |
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| Risk assessment considering time-sequence characteristics for power system with wind power ramp event |
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HE Chengming1, WANG Hongtao1, WANG Chunyi2, WEI Zhongkang3
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1.Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education，Shandong University，Ji’nan 250061，China;2.State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company，Ji’nan 250001，China;3.State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company，Beijing 100053，China
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| Abstract: |
| Different from the normal wind power stochastic volatility，the wind power ramp event has obvious time-sequence characteristics. In order to accurately assess its impact on the risk of system operation，its characteristics and development process are analyzed and a corresponding outage model is deduced based on the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method for the conventional generator. The possible outage time and corresponding operating state of conventional generator are sampled respectively and the impact of time-sequence relationship between the ramp event and the outage of conventional generator on the result of assessment is considered. With the consideration of under-frequency load-shedding and AGC regulation，the frequency violation degree and load-loss expectation are adopted to assess the risk of system operation. The risk of system operation is assessed and analyzed in multiple scenarios for IEEE RTS 24-bus system，verifying the effectiveness of the proposed model. |
| Key words: wind power ramp event risk assessment time-sequence characteristics Monte Carlo methods |
