| 引用本文: | 周晓雨,李华强,刘沛清,吕歆瑶.考虑电网安全风险的融冰序列决策[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(2): |
| ZHOU Xiaoyu,LI Huaqiang,LIU Peiqing,LÜ Xinyao.Decision-making scheme of ice-melting sequence considering grid safety risk[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(2): |
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| 摘要: |
| 基于可靠度理论和风险理论，综合考虑冰风荷载影响，提出冰灾天气下的覆冰线路故障概率模型，并与衡量事故后果的综合严重度指标相结合，构建覆冰风险指标反映覆冰线路故障对系统运行安全水平的影响；根据气象监测信息提出线路覆冰增长预测模型，构建系统覆冰度指标衡量电网全局覆冰水平；兼顾电网安全运行水平和系统覆冰发展趋势，综合覆冰风险指标和系统覆冰度指标构建融冰决策指标，提出融冰序列决策方案的制定方法。IEEE 30节点系统仿真结果验证了所提方法的合理性与可行性。 |
| 关键词: 冰灾 融冰策略 电网安全性 运行风险 覆冰预测 风险 |
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| Decision-making scheme of ice-melting sequence considering grid safety risk |
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ZHOU Xiaoyu, LI Huaqiang, LIU Peiqing, LÜ Xinyao
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School of Electrical Engineering and Information，Sichuan University，Chengdu 610065，China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the reliability theory and risk theory and with the consideration of wind and ice loads，a failure probability model of icing lines in the ice disaster is proposed，which is combined with the comprehensive severity index for measuring the consequence of accident to build an icing risk index for reflecting the influence of faulty iced lines on the safety of system operation. According to the monitored meteorological information，a line-icing prediction model is proposed and a system icing index is built to measure the grid-wide icing level. An ice-melting index is built by combining the icing risk index with the icing level index，which considers both the safety level of grid operation and the development tendency of grid-wide icing，and a decision-making scheme of ice-melting sequence is proposed. The simulative results of IEEE 30-bus system verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed scheme. |
| Key words: ice disaster ice-melting strategy grid safety operational risk icing prediction risks |
