| 引用本文: | 王 建,熊小伏,李 哲,梁 允,翁世杰.气象环境相关的输电线路故障时间分布特征及模拟[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3): |
| WANG Jian,XIONG Xiaofu,LI Zhe,LIANG Yun,WENG Shijie.Time distribution of weather-related transmission line failure and its fitting[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3): |
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| 摘要: |
| 在电网风险分析与可靠性评估中，尚无较为准确的输电线路故障率时间分布规律和强迫停运时间概率分布描述。以月为时间尺度，提出按多年历史同期故障率为依据的时变故障率计算方法，并通过使用傅里叶函数、高斯函数、威布尔函数拟合历史同期各月故障率的时间分布得到故障率逐月分布函数，用以模拟输电线路的时间相依故障规律，据此可用于预测未来某时段的故障率。基于同样的思路对气象相关的输电线路强迫停运时间概率分布进行模拟与建模。算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 输电线路 气象灾害 时变故障率 强迫停运时间 时间分布 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家电网公司重大基础前瞻科技项目（SG20141187） |
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| Time distribution of weather-related transmission line failure and its fitting |
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WANG Jian1, XIONG Xiaofu1, LI Zhe2, LIANG Yun2, WENG Shijie1
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1.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology，Chongqing University，Chongqing 400044，China;2.Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Company，Zhengzhou 450052，China
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| Abstract: |
| Neither accurate time distribution of transmission line failure rate nor accurate probability distribution description of forced outage time exists in the risk analysis and reliability assessment of power grid. A method for calculating the time-varying failure rate based on the historical data of monthly failure rate for several years is proposed. The time distribution of monthly failure rate is fitted with Fourier，Gaussian and Weibull functions based on the calculated monthly failure rates of same period to get the monthly failure rate function for every month，which is used to simulate the time-dependent failure properties of transmission line for predicting the failure rate of a certain time period in the future. In like manner，the probability distribution of weather-related forced outage time is fitted and modelled for transmission line. Case analysis verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: transmission line meteorological disaster time-varying failure rate forced outage time time distribution |
