| 引用本文: | 雷若冰,徐 箭,孙 辉,蒋 霖,舒东胜,李子寿,林常青.基于相关性分析的风电场群风速分布预测方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(5): |
| LEI Ruobing,XU Jian,SUN Hui,JIANG Lin,SHU Dongsheng,LI Zishou,LIN Changqing.Wind speed distribution forecasting based on correlation analysis for wind farm group[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(5): |
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| 摘要: |
| 提出了基于相关性分析的风电场群风速分布预测方法，首先以空间降尺度的思路，给出了基于修正经验变异函数的风电场群相关性区域划分方法，将风电场群划分为若干个相关性区域；以此为基础，利用空间升尺度的思路，运用经验累积分布函数，考虑相关性区域内参考风电场与目标风电场的相关性，以参考风电场风速来求取目标风电场风速，从而得知相关性区域内的风速分布，结合各个相关性区域的风速描述，最终得到整个风电场群内的风速分布。以实际风电场监测数据为基础的仿真算例验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 风速分布 风电场群 相关性 空间降尺度 空间升尺度 风电场 预测 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）资助项目（2012 -CB215201）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51477122，51190100） |
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| Wind speed distribution forecasting based on correlation analysis for wind farm group |
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LEI Ruobing1, XU Jian1, SUN Hui1, JIANG Lin2, SHU Dongsheng2, LI Zishou2, LIN Changqing2
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1.School of Electrical Engineering，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China;2.State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company，Wuhan 430077，China
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| Abstract: |
| A method for forecasting the wind speed distribution within a wind farm group is proposed based on the correlation analysis. The concept of spatial down-scaling is applied to divide the wind farm group into several correlative regions based on the revised empirical variation function. The concept of spatial up-scaling is then applied to obtain the wind speed distribution within the wind farm group，which adopts the empirical cumulative distribution function and considers the correlation between target and reference wind farms in a correlative region to calculate the wind speed of target wind farms according to the wind speed of reference wind farm and then to obtain the wind speed distribution within the correlative region. The wind speed distribution within the wind farm group is the integration of wind speed distributions for all correlative regions. Simulation based on the actual monitoring data of wind farms verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: wind speed distribution wind farm group correlation spatial down-scaling spatial up-scaling wind farms forecasting |
