| 引用本文: | 郭晓斌,程乐峰,王国平,许爱东,简淦杨,余 涛,魏文潇.基于动态修正技术的电力变压器可靠性评估模型研究[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6): |
| GUO Xiaobin,CHENG Lefeng,WANG Guoping,XU Aidong,JIAN Ganyang,YU Tao,WEI Wenxiao.Research of power transformer reliability evaluation model based on dynamic correction technique[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(6): |
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| 摘要: |
| 选取变压器油纸绝缘系统作为评估的对象，取热点温度（HST）为核心点，结合Weibull分布和Arrhenius反应定律，建立基于HST的变压器老化故障模型，该模型用于描述变压器的老化过程，目的是计算绕组HST并求解变压器油纸绝缘系统的故障率。然后，基于电力变压器油中溶解气体分析（DGA）数据，结合灰色理论对模型进行修正，确保评估值能很好地跟踪并反映变压器的实际可靠性水平。最后，以江门供电局数据作为实例分析，验证了所建立模型的有效性，通过分析可知该模型能够很好地跟踪变压器的运行状态。 |
| 关键词: 电力变压器 可靠性 热点温度 Weibull分布 Arrhenius反应定律 溶解气体分析 灰色理论 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目（2013CB228205）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51177051，51477055）；中国南方电网公司重点科技项目（KY2014-2-0018） |
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| Research of power transformer reliability evaluation model based on dynamic correction technique |
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GUO Xiaobin1, CHENG Lefeng2, WANG Guoping2, XU Aidong1, JIAN Ganyang1, YU Tao2, WEI Wenxiao1
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1.China Southern Power Grid Electric Power Research Institute，Guangzhou 510080，China;2.College of Electric Power，South China University of Technology，Guangzhou 510640，China
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| Abstract: |
| With the oil-paper insulation system of transformer as the evaluation target and the HST（Hot Spot Temperature） as the core point，a HST-based transformer aging fault model is built according to the Weibull distribution and Arrhenius reaction law，which is used to describe the transformer aging process and calculate the winding HST for obtaining the failure rate of transformer oil-paper insulation system. Based on the data of DGA（Dissolved Gas Analysis） in power transformer oil，the built model is corrected according to the grey theory to ensure the evaluation better tracking the actual reliability level of transformer. As an example，the actual data of Jiangmen power-supply bureau are analyzed to verify the validity of the built model and the results show the built model can well track the operational status of transformer. |
| Key words: power transformers reliability hot spot temperature Weibull distribution Arrhenius reaction law dissolved gas analysis grey theory |
