| 引用本文: | 管霖,陈旭,吕耀棠,唐宗顺,赵琦.适用于电网规划的光伏发电概率模型及其应用[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(11): |
| GUAN Lin,CHEN Xu,LV Yaotang,TANG Zongshun,ZHAO Qi.Probability model of PV generation for power system planning and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(11): |
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| 摘要: |
| 提出了一种兼顾短时波动性和中长时间尺度变化规律的光伏电源出力概率模型。采用气象模型基于少量参数即可建立太阳辐照度小时均值在一年内变化的离散概率时间序列模型。采用Beta连续概率分布描述每小时内太阳辐照度相对于均值的随机波动性。所提模型所需统计参数少，能有效反映光伏电源出力时间特性的规律性和随机波动性。将算例结果与实际光伏电站辐照度检测数据进行对比，验证了所提模型的有效性。结合分布式光伏电源接入配电馈线的选址定容规划实例说明了所提模型的应用场景。 |
| 关键词: 光伏电源 离散概率时间序列 连续概率模型 电网规划 可靠性分析 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2017.11.001 |
| 分类号:TM615 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(综合能源网规划与运行相关基础问题研究)(51437006) |
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| Probability model of PV generation for power system planning and its application |
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GUAN Lin1, CHEN Xu1,2, LV Yaotang1, TANG Zongshun3, ZHAO Qi1
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1.School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;2.Planning Discipline of China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510623, China;3.Planning Discipline of Guangzhou Power Supply, Guangzhou 510620, China
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| Abstract: |
| A probability model of the PV(PhotoVoltaic) power output considering both short-term vibration and middle/long time scale variation features is proposed. The distributed probability time series model of hourly mean solar irradiance in a year is established according to meteorological models based on a few parameters. The stochastic fluctuations of hourly solar irradiance with respect to the mean are described by Beta continuous probability distribution. The proposed model needs few statistical parameters and can reflect the regularity and stochastic fluctuations of output time characteristics of PV generation effectively. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing the example results with the real measured solar irradiance data of PV plants. The application scenarios are presented by sitting and sizing planning example of distribution feeders with distributed PV sources. |
| Key words: photovoltaic source distributed probability time series continuous probability model power system planning reliability analysis |
