| 引用本文: | 王雁凌,吴梦凯.经济新常态下基于偏最小二乘回归的中长期负荷预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2018,(3): |
| WANG Yanling,WU Mengkai.Medium and long term load forecasting model based on partial least-square regression under new normal economy[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2018,(3): |
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| 摘要: |
| 经济新常态下，中长期负荷预测面临负荷趋势呈S形、可依赖数据样本少等问题，传统预测方法精度受限，因此提出一种基于偏最小二乘回归和情景分析法的中长期负荷预测模型。从经济新常态的速度、结构、动力3个宏观方面入手，建立一个宏观与微观相结合、层次化的电力负荷影响因素指标体系；采用偏最小二乘回归法获取电力负荷与各影响因素的关系方程；根据“十二五”及“十三五”期间经济和电力发展的特点，采用情景分析法设定多个情景及相应参数，获得不同情景下有区别的负荷预测结果，以降低预测风险。利用所提模型对某省“十三五”期间的逐年用电量进行预测，通过与现有成熟方法预测结果及官方公布数据的对比，验证了所提模型的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 经济新常态 中长期负荷预测 偏最小二乘回归 情景分析法 模型 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.issn.1006-6047.2018.03.018 |
| 分类号:TM715 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Medium and long term load forecasting model based on partial least-square regression under new normal economy |
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WANG Yanling, WU Mengkai
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School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
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| Abstract: |
| The medium and long term load forecasting faces problems under the new normal economy, such as S shape load trend, few dependable data sample, etc.,and the accuracy of traditional forecasting method is limited, for which, a medium and long term load forecasting method based on partial least-square regression and scenario analysis method is proposed. With the combination of macroscopic view with the microscopic view, a hierarchical index system of factors influencing power load is built from three macroscopic aspects of new normal economy, i. e. speed, structure and driving force. The partial least-square regression method is adopted to obtain the relation equation between power load and its influence factors. According to the characteristics of economy and power development during the 12th and 13th five-year plan, the scenario analysis method is adopted to set up several scenarios and corresponding parameters, and different load forecasting results under each scenarios are obtained for reducing the forecasting risk. The proposed model is applied for forecasting the yearly electricity consumption of a province during the 13th five-year plan, and the comparison with the forecasting results of existing sophisticated methods and official data verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. |
| Key words: new normal economy medium and long term load forecasting partial least-square regression scenario analysis method models |
