| 引用本文: | 马倩,王昭聪,潘学萍,刘肖凡.新电改环境下基于效用函数的电网投资决策评价方法[J].电力自动化设备,2019,39(12): |
| MA Qian,WANG Zhaocong,PAN Xueping,LIU Xiaofan.Evaluation method of power grid investment decision based on utility function under new electricity reform environment[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2019,39(12): |
|
| 摘要: |
| 从技术、效益和项目成熟度3个指标出发，构建了新电改环境下电网规划项目投资排序评估的指标体系。为计及决策者的风险偏好，将效用理论引入投资评估中。首先根据各指标建立对应的效用函数，并求取其效用值，进一步采用模糊层次分析法获取上述3个指标的权重，最后基于向量距离合并规则算法求取投资排序综合效用值。以IEEE-RTS79节点系统为例，对不同输电规划项目进行了投资排序，并将所提方法与净现值方法进行了对比，说明了所提方法的可行性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 新电改环境 电力系统 效用理论 投资决策评价 模糊层次分析法 向量距离合并规则 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.201910011 |
| 分类号:TM73;F123.9 |
| 基金项目:国网江苏省电力公司科技项目(JSDL-2017-ZB01) |
|
| Evaluation method of power grid investment decision based on utility function under new electricity reform environment |
|
MA Qian1, WANG Zhaocong2, PAN Xueping2, LIU Xiaofan3
|
|
1.State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210024, China;2.College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Nanjing Zhizhu Information Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211189, China
|
| Abstract: |
| A comprehensive index system, which considers the technique, economy and project maturity, is constructed for investment sequence evaluation of power grid planning projects in the new electricity reform environment. To take the risk preference of decision-makers into account, the utility theory is introduced into the evaluation. Firstly, the utility function of each index is established and the utility value of each index is calculated. Secondly, the weights of above three indexes are obtained based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Finally, the overall utility value of each investment project is obtained based on vector distance merging rule algorithm. Investment sequence evaluation of different planning projects based on IEEE-RTS79 system is carried out. The evaluation results are compared with those obtained from the net present value method, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: new electricity reform environment electric power systems utility theory investment decision evaluation fuzzy analytic hierarchy process vector distance merging rule |
