| 引用本文: | 栗然,丁星,孙帆,韩怡,严敬汝,刘会兰.风险导向下基于成本效益分析的多投资商虚拟电厂容量配置模型[J].电力自动化设备,2021,41(1): |
| LI Ran,DING Xing,SUN Fan,HAN Yi,YAN Jingru,LIU Huilan.Risk-oriented capacity configuration model for multi-investor virtual power plant based on cost-benefit analysis[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2021,41(1): |
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| 摘要: |
| 为了分析多个投资商在不同风险偏好下的虚拟电厂容量配置问题，提出一种风险导向下基于成本效益分析的多投资商虚拟电厂容量配置模型。首先，参考城市热环境设计中典型气象日的定义，提出一种基于最小相对偏差的典型日场景集构建方法；其次，以各投资商年均建设运维成本最小为目标函数，考虑分时电价、建设补贴等因素，分别运用条件风险价值度量风、光、负荷不确定性带来的经济风险，并将其与目标函数相结合，构建多投资商虚拟电厂容量配置模型；最后，基于成本效益分析原则，采用净现值和内部收益率对配置结果的可行性和抗风险能力进行评价。仿真结果表明该模型能够根据不同投资商的风险偏好给出相应容量配置方案并对决策结果进行经济学评价。 |
| 关键词: 虚拟电厂 容量配置 多投资商 条件风险价值 成本效益分析 最小相对偏差 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202011035 |
| 分类号:TM61;TM73 |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2017MS093) |
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| Risk-oriented capacity configuration model for multi-investor virtual power plant based on cost-benefit analysis |
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LI Ran1, DING Xing1, SUN Fan1, HAN Yi1, YAN Jingru2, LIU Huilan1
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1.School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China;2.State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
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| Abstract: |
| A risk-oriented capacity configuration model based on cost benefit analysis is proposed for multi-investor virtual power plant for the purpose of analyzing the virtual power plant capacity configuration problem of multiple investors under different risk preferences. Firstly, the constructing method of typical day scene set based on the minimum relative deviation referring to the definition of typical meteorological day in urban thermal environment design is proposed. Secondly, taking the minimum annual construction, operation and maintenance cost of each investor as the objective function, taking the factors such as time-of-use electricity price, construction subsidy and so on into account, the conditional value at risk is used to measure the economic risk caused by the uncertainty of wind power, photovoltaic and load. A multi-investor virtual power plant capacity configuration model is built by combining the risk and the above objective function. Finally, the feasibility and anti-risk capability of the configuration results are evaluated using the net present value and the internal rate of return based on the principle of cost-benefit analysis. Simulative results show that the model can provide corresponding capacity configuration schemes according to the risk preferences of different investors and conduct economic evaluation of decision results. |
| Key words: virtual power plant capacity configuration multi-investor conditional value at risk cost benefit analysis minimum relative deviation |
