| 引用本文: | 彭光博,向月,陈文溆乐,徐博涵,刘俊勇.“双碳”目标下电力系统风电装机与投资发展动力学推演及分析[J].电力自动化设备,2022,42(11): |
| PENG Guangbo,XIANG Yue,CHEN Wenxule,XU Bohan,LIU Junyong.Kinetic deduction and analysis of installed capacity and investment development for wind power in power system under “dual carbon” target[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2022,42(11): |
|
| 摘要: |
| 为推演“双碳”目标下风电的发展，利用系统动力学具有动态性、系统性的特点，建立了未来电力系统风电发展的系统动力学推演模型。通过历史数据验证了模型的有效性，通过仿真得到了未来风电发展趋势，并结合政策激励与技术发展过程，构建差异化场景分析不同条件下未来风电发电量、上网电量、风电消费占比及碳减排量。仿真结果表明，政策支持相比技术进步对风电装机发展及绿色证书市场交易的激励作用更强，对风电长期稳定发展具有显著的促进作用；技术进步相比政策支持对碳减排的效果更明显。同时，前期技术进步对于风电发电量、上网电量及消费量的促进作用要高于政策支持，并且在政策力度较低的情况下，高技术进步率在前期对风电投资积极性的影响要高于后期。 |
| 关键词: “双碳”目标 风电 系统动力学 投资意愿 政策激励 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202205013 |
| 分类号:TM614;F123.9 |
| 基金项目:国家电网公司总部科技项目(多目标动态平衡的电网投资规划技术与价值衍生评估研究)(1400-202157215A-0-0-00) |
|
| Kinetic deduction and analysis of installed capacity and investment development for wind power in power system under “dual carbon” target |
|
PENG Guangbo, XIANG Yue, CHEN Wenxule, XU Bohan, LIU Junyong
|
|
College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
|
| Abstract: |
| In order to deduce the development of wind power under the “dual carbon” target, the dynamics deduction model for the future development of wind power in power system is established by using the dynamic and systematic characteristics of system dynamics. The validity of the model is verified by historical data, and the future development trend of wind power is obtained through simulations. The model is combined with policy incentives and technological development progress for setting up differentiated scenarios to analyze the future wind power generation electricity, on-grid electricity, proportion of wind power consumption and carbon emission reduction under different conditions. Simulative results show that the policy support has a stronger incentive effect on the development of wind power installed capacity and green certificate market transactions than technological progress, and it has a significant promotion effect on the long-term stable development of wind power. And the technological progress has a more obvious effect on carbon emission reduction than policy support. Meanwhile, the technological progress in the early stage has a higher promotion impact on wind power generation electricity, on-grid electricity and consumption than that of policy support, and the higher rate of technological progress has a higher impact on wind power investment willingness in the early stage than that in the later stage under the condition of low policy support effort. |
| Key words: “dual carbon” target wind power system dynamics investment willingness policy incentive |
