引用本文:李宏仲,陈熙峰.计及电力不平衡风险的配电网分区协同规划[J].电力自动化设备,2024,44(7):86-93
LI Hongzhong,CHEN Xifeng.Collaborative zoning planning of distribution network considering power imbalance risk[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2024,44(7):86-93
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计及电力不平衡风险的配电网分区协同规划
李宏仲, 陈熙峰
上海电力大学 电气工程学院,上海 200090
摘要:
在实现“双碳”目标的过程中,大量分布式可再生能源随机接入配电网。由于分布式电源出力的波动性,配电网可能出现弃电、切负荷等电力不平衡的情况。提出一种计及电力不平衡风险的配电网分区协同规划方法。构建一种基于非参数估计方法的时序源荷特性仿射模型,以描述源荷特性的时序波动性和不确定性,并利用Wasserstein距离指标进行聚类,减少时序预测误差概率分布的数量;采用A*算法计算在电力廊道受限条件下负荷点之间的距离,并构建负荷点间距离矩阵和功率特性匹配度矩阵,以划分馈线区块;提出电力不平衡风险价值的计算方法,量化灵活性资源水平与电力不平衡风险间的关系;基于此,构建配电网双层协同规划模型,上层以线路和储能装置投资费用最低为目标,下层以配电网运行成本和电力不平衡风险成本最低为目标。以西北某地区实际配电网为案例,验证所提方法的有效性和优越性。
关键词:  源荷特性  馈线区块  源网荷储  不确定性  配电网规划
DOI:10.16081/j.epae.202405021
分类号:TM715
基金项目:
Collaborative zoning planning of distribution network considering power imbalance risk
LI Hongzhong, CHEN Xifeng
College of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
Abstract:
In the process of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, a large number of distri-buted renewable energy sources are randomly connected into the distribution network. Due to the fluctuation of distributed energy source output, the power imbalance conditions such as power abandon or load shedding may happen in distribution network. A collaborative zoning planning method for distribution network is proposed considering the power imbalance risk. A time-series source-load characteristic affine model based on nonparametric estimation method is constructed to describe the time-series fluctuation and uncertainty of source-load characteristics, and the Wasserstein distance index is used for clustering to reduce the number of probability distribution of time-series forecasting error. The A* algorithm is employed to calculate the distance between load points under the condition of limited power corridor, and a distance matrix between load points and a power characteristic matching matrix are constructed to divide the feeder blocks. A calculation method of power imbalance risk value is proposed to quantify the relationship between the flexibility resource level and the power imbalance risk. On this basis, a bi-layer collaborative planning model of distribution network is constructed, the upper layer takes the minimum investment cost of lines and energy storage devices as the object, while the lower layer aims at the minimum operation cost and the power imbalance risk cost of distribution network. A real distribution network in a region of Northwestern China is taken as an example, which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
Key words:  source-load characteristics  feeder block  source-grid-load-storage  uncertainty  distribution network planning

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