| 引用本文: | 商皓钰,刘天琪,卜涛,何川,印月,丁理杰.基于ALARP准则的高比例新能源并网系统日前运行风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2021,41(3): |
| SHANG Haoyu,LIU Tianqi,BU Tao,HE Chuan,YIN Yue,DING Lijie.Day-ahead operation risk assessment for power system with high penetration of renewable energy based on ALARP criterion[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2021,41(3): |
|
| 摘要: |
| 为提高高比例新能源并网系统的运行安全性，提出含风电与光伏并网系统的日前运行风险评估模型，在计及风光有功出力不确定性、负荷不确定性和系统元件状态的基础上，考虑了风光联合有功出力以及天气对线路停运率的影响，以更准确地进行风险评估。在计及电压越限、线路有功功率越限和系统失负荷的传统风险指标体系基础上，增加稳态频率越限风险指标，以更全面地考量风险来源，并结合层次分析法与熵权法引入涵盖上述指标的综合风险指标；基于最低合理可行(ALARP)准则对各个风险指标进行等级划分，以更直观地反映运行风险的大小。采用非序贯蒙特卡洛法抽取系统状态和运行条件进行风险评估，以IEEE-RTS79系统为例，通过计算分析一天24 h中系统运行风险的变化，验证了所提模型和方法的有效性，为风险指标评级研究和以风电和光伏为代表的高比例新能源并网系统日前运行风险评估提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 运行风险评估 风电 光伏 Copula函数 风险等级 ALARP准则 非序贯蒙特卡洛法 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202101021 |
| 分类号:TM732 |
| 基金项目:国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(521999180002) |
|
| Day-ahead operation risk assessment for power system with high penetration of renewable energy based on ALARP criterion |
|
SHANG Haoyu, LIU Tianqi, BU Tao, HE Chuan, YIN Yue, DING Lijie
|
|
College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
|
| Abstract: |
| To improve the operation security of power system with high penetration of renewable energy, a day-ahead operation risk assessment model for power system with wind power and photovoltaic generation is proposed. The uncertainty of wind and photovoltaic power output, load and the system component status are considered, based on which the impact of wind-photovoltaic joint power output and weather on line outage rate is investigated. In this way, the risk assessment is conducted more accurately. On the basis of traditional risk index system that considers the violation of nodal voltage constraints, transmission capacity constraints and the system load loss, the risk index of violation in steady-state frequency requirement is further added, so that the risk source is thought more comprehensively. Combined with AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy weight method, the comprehensive risk index containing these indexes is introduced. ALARP(As Low As Reasonably Practically) criterion is employed to classify each risk index to directly measure the operation risk. Non-sequential Monte Carlo method is used to produce the system status and operation conditions for risk assessment. The IEEE-RTS79 system is taken as an example, and the variation of daily system operation risk in 24 hours is calculated and analyzed. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which might contribute to the study on risk index rating and the day-ahead operation risk assessment of power system with high penetrations of wind and photovoltaic power output. |
| Key words: operation risk assessment wind power photovoltaic Copula function risk level ALARP criterion non-sequential Monte Carlo method |
